摘要
基于Bootstrap数理统计方法,构建二氧化碳排放状态判断方法模型(evaluation model on the status of CO_(2)emissions,ESC)。选取排放统计基础较好的地区,利用权威机构的多源长时间序列数据,结合IPCC清单指南确定和分析二氧化碳排放数据的分布特征,包括标准差和不确定性范围(取95%置信区间),以此作为建立碳排放达峰期、平台期及下降期的定量判断的基础,解决因核算、计量方法的不同造成排放结果的误差。研究结果表明,达峰期判断需要以峰值排放量浮动1%(0.9%~1.1%)的范围为依据,若碳排放量满足条件,则认为处于达峰期;平台期和下降期则以达峰后排放量的连续多年的年均下降率与2%(1.8%~2.2%)比较,若碳达峰后排放量的年均下降率小于2%,则认为碳排放仍处于平台期,否则认为碳排放处于下降期。基于ESC模型对欧盟和美国的历史碳排放数据进行排放状态判断,结果显示,欧盟地区在1979年碳排放达峰后,在1980—1983年进入下降期。美国在2007年碳达峰后,在2008—2012年进入下降期。ESC模型的分析结果与2个地区的排放趋势呈高度一致,表明该模型可以作为国家、地区(省份)、城市CO_(2)排放状态的定量判断方法,为碳排放路径分析和情景模拟研究提供重要支撑,为决策者提供科学的参考依据。
Based on mathematical statistics methods of Bootstrap sampling,we constructed an Evaluation model on the Status of CO_(2) emissions(ESC).This paper selected the areas with a good statistical basis,used multi-source time series data from the authorities,and combined with the emission uncertainty by referring to the IPCC Guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories to explore the CO_(2) emission distribution and statistical parameters,which included the standard deviation and uncertainty of the emission.The statistical parameters were used as a quantitative criterion to determine the peak,plateau,and decline period of CO_(2) emission and solve the calculation errors caused by statistical accounting.Based on the ESC model,the peak period was within 1%(0.9%~1.1%)of peak CO_(2) emission.The plateau and decline period were evaluated based on the comparison between the annual decline rate and 2%(1.8%~2.2%).Once the annual decline rate after the CO_(2) emission peak exceeded 2%,we assumed the CO_(2) emission to be the decline period,otherwise the plateau period.Besides,we applied the ESC model to evaluate the periods of historical CO_(2) emission for the European Union and the United States.The results showed that:the European Union reached the CO_(2) emission peak in 1979,then entered the decline period from 1980 to 1983;the United States reached the CO_(2) emission peak in 2007,then entered the decline period of CO_(2) emission from 2008 to 2012;our model was reasonable on quantitative evaluation on the status of CO_(2) emission peak.This study could provide reference value for quantitative evaluation on the status of CO_(2) emission(including the peak,plateau,and decline period)for the country,region(province),or the city,provide sound support for studies on the pathway analysis and scenario simulation of CO_(2) emission,and offer scientific evaluation reference for decision makers.
作者
张立
万昕
蒋含颖
李璇
徐少东
蔡博峰
ZHANG Li;WAN Xin;JIANG Han-ying;LI Xuan;XU Shao-dong;CAI Bo-feng(Center for Carbon Neutrality,Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning,Beijing 100012,China;Institute of Environment and Sustainability,University of California Los Angeles,Los Angeles 90095,United States;Low Carbon College,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 201306,China;School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100091,China;School of Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)
出处
《环境工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第10期1-7,共7页
Environmental Engineering
基金
中国工程院咨询研究项目“江西碳达峰与碳中和模式与实现路径研究”(2021-01JXZD-06)。
关键词
二氧化碳
排放状态
达峰期
平台期
下降期
定量判断
CO_(2)
emission status
peak period
plateau period
decline period
quantitative evaluation
