摘要
为厘定粮食生产大省山东省在国家粮食生产中的地位和作用,明确山东省粮食产量、人粮关系的时序演变特征及其内部区域差异,诊断山东省及其内部行政单元粮食生产变化的主要原因,在比较山东省和中国人粮关系基础上,在山东省及其内部17个行政单元两个层面对山东省近十年来人粮关系变化状况进行量化研究,构建粮食生产变化模型,计算17地市粮食生产变化的主要原因.研究结果表明:1)近10年来山东省作为人口大省,人均粮食持续高于国家平均水平,在实现国家粮食安全保障中承担重要作用;2)山东省内部人粮关系差异较大,人粮矛盾在地市级层面上呈现加大趋势,山东省满足自身粮食安全的压力加大;3)近10年来山东省17地市粮食产量变化原因各异,总体而言,维持山东省粮食产量增加的主要因素是粮食播种面积增加,今后增产的资源压力不容乐观.
In order to define the status and role of Shandong Province,a major grain producing province,in national grain production,and clarify the temporal evolution characteristics of grain output and the relationship between population and grain and their internal regional differences in Shandong Province,diagnose the main causes of grain production changes in Shandong Province and its internal administrative units,this paper studies the changes of the population-grain relationship in Shandong Province and its 17 administrative units in recent ten years.The main reasons for the change of grain production in 17 cities were analyzed through a grain production change model.The results show that:1)In recent 10 years,Shandong Province,as a province with large population,has been continuously higher than the national average level in terms of per capita grain,which plays an important role in the realization of national food security;2)Within Shandong Province,the populationgrain relationship is quite different.The contradiction between population and food is increasing at the prefecture level,and the pressure of Shandong Province to meet its own food security is bigger;3)In recent 10 years,there are different reasons for the change of grain yield in 17 cities.Generally speaking,the main factor to maintain the increase of grain production in Shandong Province was the increase of the grain sown area.The resource pressure of increasing production in the future is not optimistic.
作者
张晶
宋宁宁
祁兴芬
刘书忠
ZHANG Jing;SONG Ning-ning;QI Xing-fen;LIU Shu-zhong(School of Ecology,Resources and Environment,Dezhou University,Dezhou Shandong 253023,China)
出处
《德州学院学报》
2021年第6期74-78,共5页
Journal of Dezhou University
关键词
山东省
粮食主产区
人粮关系
区域差异
粮食安全
shandong province
major grain-producing areas
grain-population relationship
region difference
food security
