摘要
为更精确地评估江苏省参考作物蒸散量ET0和作物需水量在未来气候不断变化的背景下的变化趋势,本文利用参数率定后的Hargreaves-Samani公式预测全球气候模式CMIP5下中端(RCP 4.5)和高端(RCP 8.5)代表浓度路径下江苏省19个站点的ET_(0)值,并结合单系数法估算水稻和小麦总需水量变化情况。结果表明:在两种RCP情景模式下,江苏省年作物需水量整体均呈波动上升趋势,RCP 8.5模式下年作物需水量变化滞后于RCP 4.5但增长更大:2100年江苏省年作物需水量在RCP4.5情境下较2019年增长74.8%~97.5%,在RCP8.5情境下增长56.3%~102%。对比降雨与作物需水量变化,两种情景下江苏省大部分地区降雨量与作物需水量的差值均在2036、2042、2056、2061、2074、2079、2093年时大于500 mm,需要大量地表径流补充灌溉用水。综合上述情况来看,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5这两种情景模式下,虽然会出现降雨不能满足作物需水量的情况,但是通过合理的灌溉方式可有效缓解这种现象。
In order to more accurately evaluate the change trend of reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0))and crop water requirement in Jiangsu Province under the background of continuous climate change,the modified Hargreaves-Samani model is employed in this study to predict ET_(0) value of the 19 studied stations based on the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 data in CMIP5,and calculated ET_(0) value is further combined with the single coefficient method to evaluate the change of the total crop water requirement of rice and wheat.The results show that the annual crop water requirement fluctuating upward trend under the condition of both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.The change trend of annual crop water requirement under RCP8.5 lags behind that of RCP 4.5,but the increase range is larger:by 2100,the annual crop water requirement in Jiangsu Province will increase by 74.8%~97.5%and 56.3%~102%under the condition of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,respectively.By comparing the changes of precipitation with crop water requirement,the difference value in most areas of Jiangsu Province will be more than 500 mm,which needs a larger amount of surface to supplement irrigation water.In conclusion,although precipitation can not meet the crop water requirements under the future condition of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,this phenomenon can be effectively alleviated through reasonable irrigation methods through a reasonable irrigation method.
作者
史传萌
吴天傲
李江
缴锡云
SHI Chuan-meng;WU Tian-ao;LI Jiang;JIAO Xi-yun(College of Agricultural Science and Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China;Cooperative Innovation Center for Water Safety and Hydro-science,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,Jiangsu Province,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2021年第12期222-228,共7页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20200524)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(B210202120)。
关键词
CMIP5
RCP
参考作物蒸散量
作物需水量
反距离权重插值
CMIP5
RCP
reference evapotranspiration
crop water requirement
inverse distance weight interpolation
