摘要
为分析揭示水资源承载力评价的内在机理,综合定性分析和定量计算探讨了水资源承载力评价机理,在探析结构功能函数的基础上构建了基于集对分析和随机模拟的水资源承载力评价模型(WCC-SPASS)。将WCC-SPASS应用于2015年安徽省16个地级市水资源承载状态的评价,结果显示,位于皖北和皖中地区的地级市评价结果分别为3、2级;位于皖南地区的6个地级市中芜湖、马鞍山市的评价结果属于2级,其余4个地级市的评价结果属于1级。该评价结果与安徽省水资源承载现状基本保持一致,表明WCC-SPASS评价模型有效可行;评价结果是各地级市对应评价等级的可能值,进一步反映评价结果具有不确定性这一客观情况。结构功能函数的构建深化了目前水资源承载力研究领域中对评价内在机理的研究,可为提出针对性的调控措施提供依据。
This paper discussed water resources carrying evaluation mechanism from aspects of qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation.Based on the structural function,water resources carrying capacity evaluation model was established based on set pair analysis and stochastic simulation(WCC-SPASS).The WCC-SPASS was applied to the evaluation of water resources carrying status of 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province in 2015.The results show that the water resources carrying capacity of each city in the north and center of Anhui Province are grade 3 and grade 2,respectively;There are differences among 6 cities in south of Anhui Province,Wuhu and Ma’anshan are grade 2,while other 4 cities are all grade 1.The evaluation results are basically consistent with the present situation of water resources in Anhui Province,which verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of the WCC-SPASS evaluation model.The evaluation result corresponds to the possible value of each evaluation grade.The WCC-SPASS evaluation model can further reveal the objective situation that the evaluation result is uncertainty.To sum up,the construction of function of structural performance deepens the exploration on the carrying mechanism of water resources in the current research field of water resources carrying capacity,and it can provide the basis for targeted regulatory measures.
作者
陈磊
戚鑫珑
陈莹莹
陈佳
寿焯葶
郦新妹
CHEN Lei;QI Xin-long;CHEN Ying-ying;CHEN Jia;SHOU Zhuo-ting;LI Xin-mei(Water Conservancy Engineering Survey and Design Institute,Water Conservancy Bureau of Zhuji,Zhuji 311800,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2021年第12期51-56,共6页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51709071)
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0407206)。
关键词
水资源承载力
机理分析
结构功能函数
随机模拟
集对分析
安徽省
water resources carrying capacity
mechanism analysis
structural function
stochastic simulation
set pair analysis
Anhui Province
