摘要
农户从事的农业生产周期与是否参与订单农业关乎小额信贷资金的回笼效率与安全性。随着中国"三农"工作从脱贫攻坚转向乡村振兴,农户小额信贷的普惠目标可能会发生偏移、转向支持信贷违约风险低的农户。基于2021年1—3月对山东、湖北、四川的324份农户有效调查问卷,利用二元Probit模型分析农户的农业生产周期与参与订单农业两个因素对其小额信贷获得性的影响。结果发现,农业生产周期长(6个月及以上)的农户获得小额信贷的概率比短生产周期(6个月内)的农户低0.11;未参与订单农业的农户获得小额信贷的概率比参与订单农业的农户低0.13;从事农业生产周期短且参与订单农业的农户获得小额信贷的概率高0.12。说明当前农户小额信贷普惠目标已发生偏移,比较青睐生产周期短且参与订单农业的农户。因此,在过渡期降低信贷风险的同时,应优化农户小额信贷支农政策,引导小额信贷继续支持低收入农户的农业生产,以巩固脱贫成果。
The agricultural production cycle that farmers engage in and whether they participate in contract agriculture are related to the efficiency and safety of microfinance.As China’s"agriculture,rural areas and farmers"work transfers from poverty alleviation to rural revitalization,the universal goal of rural microfinance may shift to support farmers with low risk of credit default.Based on 324 valid questionnaires of farmers in Shandong,Hubei and Sichuan provinces from January to March 2021,the influence of agricultural production cycle and contract agriculture on rural household microfinance was analyzed by adopting Binary Probit model.It was found that farmers with a long agricultural production cycle(6 months or more)had a 0.11 lower probability of getting microfinance than those with a short agricultural production cycle(6 months);the probability of farmers who did not participate in contract agriculture was 0.13 lower than that of farmers who participated in contract agriculture;farmers engaged in short agricultural production cycle and participated in contract agriculture had a 0.12 higher probability of obtaining microfinance.This indicates that the current goal of rural household microfinance is biased,and farmers with short agricultural production cycle and participation in contract agriculture are preferred by rural household microfinance organizations.Therefore,while reducing credit risks during the transition period,rural household microfinance should be guided to sequentially support farmers with low income from agricultural production to consolidate the achievements of poverty alleviation.
作者
孟杨
Meng Yang(Xinjiang Agricultural Vocational Technical College,Changji 831100,Xinjiang)
出处
《农业展望》
2021年第9期51-57,共7页
Agricultural Outlook
基金
教育部科技发展中心燕园项目(2019YAA01003)。
关键词
乡村振兴
农村金融
农户小额信贷
农业生产周期
订单农业
rural revitalization
rural finance
rural household microfinance
agricultural production cycle
contract agriculture
