摘要
增长和收敛是宏观经济增长模型所关注的两个重要问题。本文在一个巴罗类型的增长模型基础之上利用2005-2016年中国的县级面板数据,基于双差分模型验证2011年以来最新的减贫政策对贫困地区经济增长和区域收敛的影响。本文的实证研究结果表明,减贫政策的确促进了贫困地区的经济增长,使得处理组的经济增长率增加了1.52个百分点,对贫困地区经济增长的贡献度达到了13.5%。此外,本文的实证估计结果还表明,中国的县域经济发展存在条件beta收敛,也就是说欠发达地区的经济增速相对而言高于发达地区,这也使得从整体来看中国的区域经济在2011年之后呈不断收敛的趋势。不过,仍然是基于双差分估计,本文发现减贫政策并没有促使贫困区域内部收敛。
Growth and convergence are two important issues of concern in macroeconomic growth models.This paper uses county-level panel data for China from 2005-2016 based on a Barro-type growth model with difference-in-difference model to test the impact of the latest poverty reduction policies on economic growth and regional convergence in poor regions since 2011.The empirical results of this paper show that the poverty reduction policy did contribute to the economic growth of the poor regions,resulting in an increase in the economic growth rate of the treatment group by 1.52 percentage points,contributing 13.5%to the economic growth of poor regions.In addition,the empirical results in this paper also indicate that there is conditional beta convergence in China's county economic development,which means that less developed regional economy as a whole has been growing at a relatively higher rate than that of the developed regions,which has led to an overall convergent trend after 2011.However,still based on difference-in difference estimates,this paper finds that poverty reduction policies have not contributed to convergence within poor regions.
作者
刘生龙
郑世林
SHENGLONG LIU;SHILIN ZHENG(School of Public&Policy Management,Tsinghua University;Institute of Quantitative&Technological Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
出处
《产业经济评论》
CSSCI
2021年第6期114-134,共21页
Review of Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(72073078)
教育部人文社科项目(20YJA790047)
清华大学自主科研计划资助项目(2021THZWYY03)的资助。
关键词
减贫政策
增长效应
收敛效应
双差分估计
Policy Reduction Policy
Growth Effect
Convergence Effect
Difference-in-Difference Estimation
