摘要
根据发达国家发展规律,用水量会在社会经济发展到一定阶段后实现"零增长"。通过分析浙江省社会经济发展现状,研判浙江省及各地工业化发展所处阶段,分析浙江省用水量现状情况,借鉴发达国家用水量变化规律,研究预测浙江省各个地区用水量实现"零增长"的时间拐点。研究结果表明:现阶段浙江省总体处于工业后期向发达经济初级的发展阶段,未来一段时间内用水量趋于稳定并缓慢增长,并将在2033年前后迎来用水量"零增长"的拐点。
According to the law of development in developed countries,the water consumption will stop growing when the social economy reaches an advanced stage of development.In this paper,the stage of industrialization development had been studied by analyzing the current situation of social and economic development in Zhejiang Province.And the“Zero Growth”time of water consumption in Zhejiang Province was predicted by analyzing the current situation of water consumption and drawing lessons from the law of water consumption change in developed countries.According to the result,Zhejiang Province is in the primary stage of development from industrial later period to developed economy,and the water consumption will grow slowly in the near future.Meanwhile,the inflection point of“Zero Growth”of water consumption will arrive around 2033.
作者
田玺泽
夏冬梅
张兰
刘福瑶
TIAN Xize;XIA Dongmei;ZHANG Lan;LIU Fuyao(Zhejiang Hydrological Management Center,Hangzhou 310009,Zhejiang,China;Zhejiang Institute of Hydraulics&Estuary(Zhejiang Institute of Marine Planning and Design),Hangzhou 300020,Zhejiang,China;Zhejjiang Ecological and Environmental Monitoring Center,Hangzhou 310012,Zhejiang,China)
出处
《浙江水利科技》
2021年第6期13-19,共7页
Zhejiang Hydrotechnics
关键词
工业化发展阶段
用水量
零增长
stage of industrialization development
water consumption
zero growth
