摘要
根据白龙江中上游地区1008条泥石流沟的调查数据,结合试验分析,借助GIS分析功能,以沟道为评价单元,选取储量、地质类型、地质特征、沟口冲淤和破坏力5个要素层下的19个指标构建泥石流危险性评价体系.经过优化总结,使用均值和极值归一化原始数据,将关联法、专家评分法和综合评价法结合在同一个体系中,改善关联法的模糊性,同时集合客观主观的优势,得出一套评价体系.聚类分析综合值得出,文县的高危险、中高危险和中危险泥石流最多,宕昌县的高危险和中高危险泥石流较多;迭部县的中低危险泥石流最多;武都区和迭部县的低危险泥石流最多.要素层值分析得出,在高值泥石流沟道中,宕昌县的储量致险性最高;文县的地质类型、地质特征和沟口冲淤致险性最高;武都区的破坏力致险性最高.正态分布分析结果表明,储量和地质特征对泥石流的致险起主导作用.使用Moran’s I分析泥石流沟道间的关系表明,储量和沟口冲淤多数为高值与高值相邻,其综合致险性较高;地质类型和地质特征多半为高值和高值相邻、低值和低值相邻,其泥石流致险性两极化;破坏力多数为高值与高值相邻,容易诱发大型泥石流灾害.
According to detailed investigation data concerning 1008 debris flow gullies in the upper and middle reaches of the Bailong River,combined with experimental analysis and with the help of GIS analysis function,the gully as taken as the evaluation unit,19 indicators were selected under five element layers of dynamic reserves,geological types,geological characteristics,erosion and deposition and destructive power,in order to construct a debris flow risk indicator system.With regards to the use of the method,after optimization and summary,the indicator data were normalized with the mean and extreme values,and the correlation method,expert scoring method and comprehensive evaluation method were intelligently combined in the same system,thereby improving on the ambiguity of the correlation method.Objective and subjective advantages were combined to arrive at a set of rigorous thinking and a reference evaluation system.The cluster analysis comprehensively showed that most debris flows in Wen County were high-,medium-high-and medium-risk.Most debris flows in Tanchang County were high-and medium-high risk.Most mudslides in Diebu County were of medium to low risk.Most of the debris flows in Wudu District and Diebu County were of low risk.Analysis of the element layer value showed that,among the high-value debris flow channels,Tanchang County had the highest risk of dynamic reserves;Wen County had the highest risk of the geological type,geological characteristics and erosive and silting gully;Wudu District had the highest risk of damage,being the most dangerous.The analysis result of the scatter matrix diagram was that the dynamic reserves and geological characteristics played a leading role in the risk of debris flows.Using Moran’s I to analyze the relationship between the debris flow channels concluded that the dynamic reserves and the erosion and deposition of the gully mouth were mostly high and adjacent to high values,and their comprehensive risk was high;most of values of the geological types and geological characte
作者
张芝艳
刘兴荣
周自强
韩惠
王喜红
刘耀祥
ZHANG Zhi-yan;LIU Xing-rong;ZHOU Zi-qiang;HAN Hui;WANG Xi-hong;LIU Yao-xiang(Geological Hazards Prevention Institute,Gansu Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000,China;Faculty of Geomatics,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;College of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,Gansu Agricultural University,Lanzhou 730070,China)
出处
《兰州大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第5期615-621,626,共8页
Journal of Lanzhou University(Natural Sciences)
基金
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究资助项目(2019QZKK0902)
甘肃省科技计划项目(20YF3FA006)
甘肃省科学院科技产业化项目(CY08)。
关键词
泥石流危险性评价体系
关联法结合专家评分
聚类分析
正态分布分析
Moran’s
I分析
debris flow risk assessment system
correlation method combined with expert score
cluster analysis
scatter matrix chart analysis
Moran’s I analysis
