摘要
自政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)第五次评估报告(AR5)发布以来,国际科学界在气候系统变化领域取得显著进展,有关气候变化的科学认识不断深入。IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)第一工作组(WGI)报告对这些科学进展和最新认识作了综合评估。温度是全球变化最直接的指示器。本文从温度变化视角,对从AR5到AR6的科学进展进行了梳理和简要评述,主要聚焦观测的变化、归因以及未来预估三个方面。与AR5相比,AR6以更强有力的证据进一步确证了近百年全球气候变暖的客观事实,人类活动对气候变暖影响的信号更为清晰,未来变暖幅度取决于温室气体减排力度。
Since the release of the Fifth Assessment Report(AR5)of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC),the international scientific community has made a number of significant progresses in the field of climate system change,which deepen our understanding on climate change.These scientific progresses and findings have been assessed objectively and comprehensively in the Working Group I(WGI)report of the Sixth Assessment Report(AR6)of IPCC.Given that temperature is the most direct indicator of global climate change,this paper briefly reviews the scientific cognition of the observed changes,attribution and projection from AR5 to AR6 from the perspective of changes in surface temperature.Compared to AR5,AR6 further confirms the objective fact of global warming since 1850 with stronger evidence,and the signals of human influenceon global warming are much clearer.The future amplitude of global warming depends on the efforts of greenhouse gas emission reduction.
作者
周波涛
ZHOU Botao(Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC),Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)
出处
《大气科学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第5期667-671,共5页
Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41991285)。
