摘要
2020年初中国爆发了新冠肺炎疫情,政府在不同时间采取各类防疫政策积极应对,政策的有效性决定了疫情能否得以控制。应用系统动力学方法构建了湖北省的疫情传播仿真模型,合理拟合了疫情发展的现实数据,并选取隔离防控政策、医疗政策以及无症状监测政策进行仿真实验,分析了"群体防疫"、单一政策和不同政策组合下疫情传播的特征,探讨了各类防疫政策的有效性。研究发现,每一项政策对此次疫情均起到了不同程度的抑制作用,但三项政策联合干预是最有效的。长期来看,在三项政策先后作用下,病毒的传播速率在短期内降低,感染者可被及时的隔离与救治,疫情得到有效控制的同时也缩短了疫情周期,并遏制了疫情的二次爆发。
The COVID-19 epidemic broke out in China at the beginning of 2020.Various epidemic prevention policies were adopted by the government at different times.Whether the epidemic could be controlled depends on the effectiveness of the policies.Hubei province epidemic spread simulation model was conducted by the system dynamics methods.The actual data of epidemic development were reasonably fitted.The simulation experiments of"quarantine and prevention policy","medical policy"and"asymptomatic monitoring policy"were carried out,and the effectiveness of various epidemic prevention policies is discussed.As the research results show,each policy had a different degree of inhibition on the outbreak.It is remarkable that the three policy interventions are the most effective.In the long run,under the three policies,the transmission rate of the virus was reduced in the short term,the infected people could be isolated and treated in time,and the epidemic period was shortened while the epidemic was effectively controlled,and the secondary outbreak of the epidemic was prevented.
作者
刘丹阳
张宁
牟宗玉
LIU Dan-yang;ZHANG Ning;MU Zong-yu(School of Business,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266061,China)
出处
《青岛大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
2021年第4期103-109,117,共8页
Journal of Qingdao University(Natural Science Edition)
基金
山东省自然科学基金(批准号:ZR2017BG002)资助。
