摘要
中国在财政不平衡的背景下实现了金融高增长与低利率,这与金融发展理论的预测不符,被称为金融发展的“中国之谜”。转型经济体中政府参与金融发展,除了金融抑制以外,也可以通过创造金融需求促进金融发展。通过模型分析推演出政府需求影响金融发展的动态过程,回应“中国之谜”;分析省级面板数据,在验证政府需求促进金融发展的同时,发现政府需求对金融发展的影响程度逐步减弱,而市场需求的影响程度逐渐增强。由此得出中国金融发展的动力表现为政府的逐步退出和市场的逐步进入,二者呈现此消彼长的态势。
Against the background of the fiscal imbalance,China has realized the coexistence of the high financial growth and low interest rates,which is inconsistent with the prediction of the financial development theory.It is called the“Chinese mystery”of the financial development.In addition to the financial repression,the government involves the financial development in the transition and can also promote financial development by creating financial demand.Through model analysis,the dynamic process of government demand affecting financial development is deduced,and the“Chinese mystery”is answered.Through estimating the provincial panel data,it is found that the government demand can promote the financial development,and the impact of the government demand has gradually decreased,while the impact of the market demand has gradually increased.The driving force of China’s financial development is the gradual withdrawal of the government and the gradual entry of the market.
作者
樊羚
韩廷春
FAN Ling;HAN Tingchun(School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第6期42-51,共10页
Modern Economic Science
基金
清华大学自主科研计划课题“金融生态环境、金融发展与经济增长质量的非线性关系研究”(2015THZWSH06)。
关键词
金融发展
金融需求
政府需求
市场需求
financial development
financial demand
government demand
market demand
