居民杠杆率的发展、风险与应对建议:基于法律金融学研究视角被引量：3

The Development,Risks and Countermeasures of Residents'Leverage Ratio:Based on the Perspective of Legal Finance

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摘要近年来,我国居民杠杆率快速上升备受关注。从居民杠杆率的发展演进与国际比较看,我国居民杠杆率历经起步期、发展期与稳定期,并呈现出上升速度快、与国际趋势背离、金融风险加剧化等特征。根据PEST分析方法,可以从政策、经济、社会与科技之维剖析居民杠杆率高企的风险衍生及其成因:货币政策的量化宽松刺激了消费信贷市场“虚假繁荣”;债务过度扩张将透支居民消费潜力并抑制经济发展;居民杠杆率快速上升不利于通过储蓄缓冲债务风险;金融科技的崛起驱动居民杠杆率“野蛮发展”。在域外居民杠杆率高企的风险防范经验上,通过参照法律金融学理论的研究框架,重点对海洋法系下英国以及大陆法系下德国与韩国的居民杠杆率风险防范进行比较研究,进而从法律、政策、社会与科技层面对我国防范居民杠杆率风险提出相关的应对建议。 In recent years,the rapid increase in the leverage ratio of Chinese residents has attracted much at⁃tention.From the perspective of the development and evolution of the residents'leverage ratio and international comparisons,China's residents'leverage ratio has gone through an initial period,a development period,and a sta⁃ble period,and has shown characteristics such as rapid rise,departure from international trends,and risk asymme⁃try.According to the PEST analysis method,we can analyze the risk derivation and its causes of the high leverage ratio of residents from the dimensions of policy,economy,society and technology:the quantitative easing of mone⁃tary policy has stimulated the“false prosperity”of the consumer credit market;excessive debt expansion will over⁃draft household consumption potential and inhibit economic development;rapid rise in household leverage is not conducive to buffering debt risks through savings;the rise of financial technology drives the"barbaric develop⁃ment"of residents'leverage ratio.With regard to the risk prevention experience of the high leverage ratio of for⁃eign residents,by referring to the research framework of legal and financial theory,this article focuses on the com⁃parative study of the leverage ratio risk prevention of residents in the United Kingdom under the law of the sea and Germany and South Korea under the civil law system,and then puts forward relevant countermeasure suggestions on the prevention of residents'leverage ratio risk in China from the legal,policy,social and technological levels.

作者程雪军李心荷 Cheng XueJun;Li XinHe

机构地区上海大学法学院中国社会科学院金融研究所香港中文大学商学院

出处《西南金融》北大核心 2021年第10期20-31,共12页 Southwest Finance

基金国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国互联网金融市场准入与监管法制重大理论与实践问题研究”(批准号:16BFX098) 中国社会科学院国情调研重大项目“关于互联网金融风险治理调研”(批准号:GQZD2020006)。

关键词居民杠杆率消费金融金融科技债务扩张金融风险风险防范双峰监管法律金融 resident leverage ratio consumer finance financial technology debt expansion financial risk risk prevention double peak supervision legal finance