摘要
基于中国2004年2月—2019年12月的月度时序数据,利用平滑转换(STR)模型,实证分析了财政支出、社会融资规模对民间投资的影响。研究发现:在不同的财政支出水平下,财政支出和社会融资规模的增加会给民间投资带来不同影响;当财政支出低于14200亿元时,政府财政支出的增加会对民间投资产生显著的促进作用,同时社会融资规模的提高也会促进民间投资上升,但是社会融资规模提高对民间投资的促进作用要明显低于政府财政支出;当政府财政支出处于相对较高水平时,当期财政支出会显著抑制民间投资增长,但是上一期财政支出却对民间投资具有明显促进作用,同时当期社会融资规模增加也会显著刺激民间投资增长。本文的启示在于:中国经济进入新发展阶段,民间投资有更为广阔的天地,政府应更好地发挥引领与撬动功能进一步拓展投资空间,尤其应注重推动财政金融政策配合深化,有效激发民间投资活力,增强内生发展动力,提升内生发展能力,合力形成双循环新发展格局中市场主导的投资内生增长机制。
Based on the monthly time series data from February 2004 to December 2019 in China,a smooth transition regression(STR)model is applied to empirically analyze the impact of fiscal expenditure and aggregate financing to the real economic on private investment.It is found that:The impact of fiscal expenditure and aggregate financing to the real economic on private investment is not fixed.Under different levels of fiscal expenditure,the increase in the scale of fiscal expenditure and aggregate financing to the real economic will bring different effects to private investment.When the fiscal expenditure is less than 1,4200 billion yuan,the increase in fiscal expenditure will have a significant positive driving effect on private investment.At the same time,the increase in aggregate financing to the real economic will also promote the rise of private investment,which has a lower promotional effect than government finance expenditure.When the government fiscal expenditure is at a relatively high level,the current fiscal expenditure has a significant crowding out effect on private investment,but the previous fiscal expenditure has a significant promotion effect on private investment,and the increase in aggregate financing to the real economic will also significantly stimulate the growth of private investment.The enlightenment is as follows:China’s economy has entered a new stage of development,and private investment has a broader horizon.The government should give better play to its leading and leveraging functions to further expand the investment space,and in particular should focus on promoting the deepening of fiscal and financial policy coordination,effectively stimulating the vitality of private investment,enhancing endogenous development momentum,and enhancing endogenous development capabilities.Make concerted efforts and form a market-led endogenous growth mechanism for investment in a new dual-cycle development pattern.
作者
王小华
黄捷
WANG Xiao-hua;HUANG Jie(College of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China)
出处
《统计与信息论坛》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第11期87-94,共8页
Journal of Statistics and Information
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“实现巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接研究”(21ZDA062)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金创新团队项目“‘一带一路’倡议下的金融扶贫合作研究”(SWU2009105)。
关键词
民间投资
财政支出
社会融资规模
STR模型
private investment
fiscal expenditure
aggregate financing to the real economic
smooth transition regression model
