摘要
为了确定高速公路交通安全影响因素,以广西桂林市境内的G65包茂高速部分路段为例,搜集该路段2017—2019年发生的交通事故数据,运用负二项回归模型,分析交通事故数与交通流条件、交通设施条件、道路几何条件之间的关系.结果表明:通过比较拟合优度和准确性检验结果,用于研究该高速公路安全性及其影响要素关系的负二项回归模型拟合效果及准确性良好;经过逐步回归,3个维度包含的11个自变量中,除圆曲线、缓和曲线以及直线的长度、竖曲线半径以外,剩余的7个自变量对高速公路的安全性具有显著影响,其中除客车平均速度和匝道数以外,其他变量均呈现正影响,且以交通流条件的影响最为显著,其影响程度从大到小依次为客车年平均日交通量、货车年平均日交通量、客车平均速度、货车平均速度;此外,交通设施条件中的匝道数和隧道数、道路几何条件中的坡长也有显著影响,但影响程度较小.本研究对揭示影响高速公路交通安全影响要素,进而有针对性地制定交通安全管控措施具有重要意义.
In order to identify the influencing factors of freeway traffic safety,this paper takes a section of the G65 Baumao freeway in Guilin,Guangxi Province as an example to collect the traffic crash data from 2017 to 2019.A negative binomial regression model was employed to analyze the relationship between traffic crashes,traffic flow conditions,traffic facility conditions,and road geometry conditions.The results showed that by comparing the goodness of fit and accuracy test results,the negative binomial regression model has good fitting effect and accuracy.Among the 11 independent variables included in the above three aspects,the remaining 7 independent variables have a significant impact on the safety of the freeway.The circular curves,gentle curves,length of straight segments,and the radius of vertical curves were excluded.Except for the average speed of passenger cars and the number of ramps,all other variables show positive effects.And the influence of traffic flow conditions is the most significant.The degree of influence in descending order is the annual average daily traffic volume of passenger cars and trucks,average speed of passenger cars and trucks.Although the number of ramps and tunnels in the traffic facilities condition and the slope length in the road geometry condition also have significant influence,to a lesser extent.This study is important to reveal the influencing factors affecting freeway traffic safety,and then formulate traffic safety control measures in a targeted manner.
作者
段洪琳
吴大勇
程丽
郭淼
伍毅平
DUAN Honglin;WU Dayong;CHENG Li;GUO Miao;WU Yiping(China Merchants New Intelligence Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100070,China;Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)
出处
《交通工程》
2021年第5期27-32,47,共7页
Journal of Transportation Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFB1600500)。
