摘要
随着高铁建设和机场数量的增多,民航与高铁的竞争及区域机场间的竞争日渐激烈,给机场旅客吞吐量预测带来挑战,仅考虑单一机场要素的预测方法已无法适应区域内多机场系统旅客吞吐量的预测需要。文中同时考虑民航与高铁以及机场间的双重竞争,对竞争态势下的区域多机场吞吐量预测进行研究。在探究客流分担影响机制的基础上,构建基于竞争环境下的多机场旅客吞吐量需求预测双层Nested Logit模型,提出双重竞争下机场吞吐量预测方法。确定旅客出行行为选择的显著影响因素,构造效用函数,进行问卷设计与样本数据采集,利用TransCAD软件对效用函数进行参数估计和标定。以珠江三角洲机场群为依托,对提出的方法进行示例应用。结果表明:双层Nested Logit模型能较好地量化表征航空与高铁及机场间的双重竞争关系,且能同步预测包括目标机场在内的机场群内所有机场的旅客吞吐量,便于机场群的整体性规划和协作,为旅客吞吐量的准确预测提供新方向。
With the construction of high-speed rail and the increase in the number of airports,the competition between civil aviation and high-speed rail and the competition between regional airports have become increasingly fierce,which has brought challenges to the forecast of airport passenger throughput.The forecasting method considering only a single airport factor can't meet the prediction needs of regional multi airport system passenger throughput.At the same time,considering the dual competition between civil aviation and high-speed rail as well as airports,a research is made on the regional multi-airport throughput forecast under the competitive situation.On the basis of exploring the influence mechanism of passenger flow sharing,this paper constructs a double-layer nested logit model for passenger throughput demand forecasting of multiple airports under the competitive environment,and puts forward the airport throughput forecasting method under the double competition.Then it determines the significant influencing factors of passenger travel behavior choices,constructs utility functions,conducts questionnaire design and sample data collection,and uses TransCAD software to estimate and calibrate the utility function parameters.Relying on the Pearl River Delta Airport Group,the method proposed in this paper is used as an example.The result shows that the double-layer Nested Logit model can better quantify and characterize the dual competitive relationship between aviation,high-speed rail and airports,and can simultaneously predict the passenger throughput of all airports in the airport group including the target airport,which is convenient for the overall airport group strategic planning and collaboration provide a new direction for the accurate prediction of passenger throughput.
作者
王京元
邱远仕
周亚琦
WANG Jingyuan;QIU Yuanshi;ZHOU Yaqi(School of Civil and Traffic Engineering,Shenzhen University,Shenzhen 518060,China;Hangzhou Comprehensive Transportation Research Center,Hangzhou 310000,China)
出处
《交通科技与经济》
2021年第6期17-23,31,共8页
Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(50908150)。
