摘要
识别和区分家庭住房需求和资产配置受生命周期、代际和时间的不同影响,对于准确把握房地产和金融资产需求的长期趋势,推进相关市场的长效机制建设有重要意义。数据显示:房产在家庭资产配置中起主导作用,房产拥有率高、占比大,而其它金融资产比例较低;首套房购买者有明显的年轻化趋势,住房拥有率在40岁前后达到高点;房价对不同代际和户籍身份的家庭有不同影响,年轻人和新移民的购房支出高、房贷压力大。基于上述事实,本文构建了包含人力资本和禀赋异质性的分析住房需求决策的生命周期模型,研究发现:更好的人力资本和初始禀赋对住房拥有和房产配置均有正向影响,但是存在一定的替代作用;教育年限增加了收入,但是推迟了就业和婚育,导致首次购房年龄延迟;在房价快速上涨的背景下,禀赋提升会增加房产持有,挤出金融资产配置。
Housing is the most important asset owned by Chinese households. In addition to its investment value, it also has consumption attributes. Housing affects economic development and people’s lives. Clarifying the facts of housing is crucial to understand household asset allocation, macroeconomic policies, and social mobility. Moreover, identifying the life cycle characteristics of housing demand and asset allocation play an important role in understanding the relationship between demographic changes and housing demand, in designing policies to regulate the housing market, which reduces macro financial risks and improves economic efficiency and social welfare. This paper summarizes the latest stylized facts of households’ housing demand and asset allocation based on the five waves(from 2011 to 2019) of the China Household Finance Survey(CHFS) data, focusing on the special characteristics of Chinese households and how asset allocation is affected by heterogeneous human capitals and endowments.This paper studies the homeownership and asset allocation of Chinese households from the perspective of life cycle. The difficulty in this type of empirical studies is to distinguish the time effect, the cohort effect, and the life cycle effect. The data observed at any specific time point reflect the comprehensive impacts of the above three aspects. Without any further restrictions, it is impossible to distinguish the life cycle effects(only the part related to age and life stage) from the time effect and the cohort effect. For example, in terms of intergenerational differences, those born in 1961-1965 bought their first house at the median age of 37, while those born in 1981-1985 at the median age of 27, which was ten years earlier. The differences in property purchase in the cross-sectional data of these two groups are partially due to time changes and also mixed with intergenerational differences. In this paper, we adopt the method used in the life cycle income dynamic research(Deaton, 1997;Heckman et al., 1998;Lagakos et
作者
张吉鹏
葛鑫
毛盛志
ZHANG Jipeng;GE Xin;MAO Shengzhi(Research Institute of Economics and Management,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;Survey and Research Center for China Household Finance,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;School of Economics,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第7期160-177,共18页
Economic Research Journal
基金
高等学校学科创新引智计划(项目编号B16040)
西南财经大学中央高校重点研究基地项目(JBK190601)
中央高校基本科研业务专项资金(JBK1805007)的资助。
关键词
住房需求
家庭资产配置
生命周期模型
人力资本与禀赋异质性
Housing Demand
Household Asset Allocation
Life-cycle Model
Human Capital and Endowment Heterogeneity
