摘要
消费升级对于助推构建"双循环"新发展格局至关重要。本文采用DFM提取不可观测因子度量金融周期和供给冲击,利用QUAIDS模型和ILLS估计考察金融周期和供给冲击对城镇居民消费结构的影响。研究发现,当前城镇居民消费升级主要阻碍在于供给端,发展性消费呈顺周期变化,但正向供给冲击力度并未达到促使城镇居民增加发展性消费;各类消费品价格和收入对消费结构的影响具有显著差异;城镇居民房屋依然主要是作为投资品,对发展性消费存在挤出效应。应实施结构性金融周期调控政策和结构性价格调控政策等措施推动城镇居民消费升级。
Consumption upgrades are essential to boost the construction of the new development pattern of "dual cycles".This paper uses DFM to extract unobservable factors to measure the financial cycle and supply shocks, and uses the QUAIDS model and ILLS estimation to empirically examine the impact of financial cycles and supply shocks on the consumption structure of urban residents. The study finds that the main obstacle to the current consumption upgrade of urban residents lies on the supply side. Developmental consumption changes in a procyclical manner, but the strength of the positive supply shock has not been enough to prompt urban residents to increase developmental consumption;there are significant differences between the impact of various consumer product prices and incomes on the consumption structure;urban residential houses are still mainly used as investment goods, which has a crowding effect on developmental consumption. Therefore, measures such as structural financial cycle control policies and structural price control policies should be implemented to promote the upgrading of urban residents’ consumption.
作者
周少甫
孟雪珂
Zhou Shao-fu;Meng Xue-ke
出处
《经济学家》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第10期61-70,共10页
Economist
基金
中央高校基本业务费项目“新型城镇化战略下的土地财政、房价波动与宏观调控政策研究”(2019WKYXZ020)
国家社会科学基金项目“土地、人口、产业三位一体城镇化路径研究”(15BJL053)。
