摘要
2015年"811汇改"完善了人民币兑美元汇率中间价报价机制,使得我国人民币汇率波动更加市场化。汇率的波动会直接影响到企业原材料价格、产成品价格、现金流情况以及股票市场投资者预期等,进而对股票收益率产生波动溢出效应,而且波动溢出效应因行业的不同而有所不同。"811汇改"后,人民币汇率波动和股票市场行业收益率波动之间显著相关,但该波动溢出效应不存在明显的非对称性。因此,我国应密切关注外汇市场情况,适时引入如逆周期调节因子等工具,稳定市场和投资者情绪,保障资本市场稳定发展;同时应大力刺激内需,提升居民消费水平,给国内企业转型、构建国际国内双循环、推进科技创新提供动力;要以货币、财政政策保障国内企业融资规模正常增长,提升国际竞争力,重点扶持小微企业,提升普惠金融服务力度。
The quotation mechanism of the standard price of the exchange rate of RMB against USD has been improved after the"Exchange Rate Reform"in August 11,2015,which makes the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate more market-oriented.The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will directly affect the prices of raw materials,finished products,cash flow and expectations of investors in stock market.It will fur-ther have volatility spillover effects on stock returns,and volatility spillover effects vary from industry to industry.After the"Exchange Rate Reform"of 811,there is a significant correlation between the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate and the volatility of the stock market industry returns,but there is no obvious asymmetry in the spillover effect of this volatility.Therefore,firstly,China should pay close attention to the foreign exchange market and introduce tools such as counter-cyclical adjustment factors in a timely manner in order to stabilize the market and set investors’mind at rest,which will ensure the stable development of the capital market.Secondly,it is necessary to vigorously stimulate domestic demand and increase the household con-sumption.Thirdly,it is important to provide impetus for the transformation of domes-tic enterprises,the construction of international and domestic dual cycles and the sci-entific and technological innovation.Fourthly,the monetary and fiscal policies should ensure the normal growth of domestic corporate financing.Fifthly,it is essential to enhance international competitiveness and focus on supporting small and micro en-terprises.Finally,it is crucial to improve inclusive financial services.
作者
周佰成
张贺
曹启
ZHOU Bai-cheng;ZHANG He;CAO Qi(Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)
出处
《税务与经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期55-61,共7页
Taxation and Economy
基金
教育部重大课题攻关项目(项目编号:17JZD016)
国家自然科学基金青年项目(项目编号:11901233)。
关键词
人民币汇率
股票市场
外汇市场
“811汇改”
RMB exchange rate
stock market
foreign exchange market
exchange rate reform of 811
