摘要
基于宁夏红寺堡移民区实地调研数据,通过构建生计资本和生计风险双指标体系,采用地理探测器和Logistic二元模型,分析影响小农户生计风险的主导因子及生计资本对风险规避策略选择的影响。结果表明:①自然灾害风险、经济风险、社会风险是当前红寺堡移民区小农户最突出的生计风险类型。其中,子女婚嫁彩礼过高、大病交不起医疗费、邻里人际关系、老人赡养等问题成为影响生计风险水平的主导因素,尤以小农户生计类型不同呈现较大差异性。②变卖资产、借贷、动用积蓄和向亲友寻求帮助是目前红寺堡移民区小农户最常采用的风险规避策略。其中,物质资本、金融资本和社会资本是影响变卖资产策略的关键因子,人力资本次之;物质资本、人力资本有显著正向影响,金融资本、社会资本有显著负向影响;物质资本、金融资本和社会资本是影响借贷策略的关键因子,金融资本、社会资本有显著正向影响,物质资本的负向影响最大;自然资本、物质资本和社会资本是影响动用积蓄策略的关键因子,自然资本、物质资本有显著正向影响,而社会资本有负向影响;物质资本是影响向亲友寻求帮助的关键因子,且对其有显著正向影响。
Based on the field survey data of Hongsipu resettlement area in Ningxia,this paper constructs a dual index system of livelihood capital and livelihood risk.The methods of geographic detector and logistic binary model analysis are both carried out to analyze the leading factors of livelihood risk of small farmers and the impact of livelihood capital on the choice of avoidance strategies.The results show that:(1)natural disaster risk,economic risk and social risk are the most prominent livelihood risk types of small farmers in Hongsibu immigration area.Too high wedding betrothal gifts for children and serious illness afford for medical expenses,neighborhood interpersonal relationship and elderly support are the leading factors affecting the level of livelihood risk.Especially the livelihood types of small farmers show great differences.(2)At present,selling assets,borrowing,using savings and seeking help from relatives and friends are the most common risk aversion strategies adopted by small farmers in Hongsibu immigrant area.Among them,physical capital,financial capital and social capital are the key factors affecting the strategy of selling assets.Human capital,physical capital and human capital have a significant positive impact,but financial capital and social capital have a significant negative impact Physical capital.And financial capital and social capital are the key factors affecting the borrowing strategy.Howerver,financial capital and social capital have a significant positive impact,and physical capital has the greatest negative impact.Natural capital,physical capital and social capital are the key factors affecting the use of savings strategy.Natural capital and physical capital have a significant positive impact,while social capital has a negative impact and physical capital has a significant positive impact.This is the key factor to seek help from relatives and friends,and has a significant positive impact on it.
作者
柳宁
LIU Ning(School of Geography and Planning,Ningxia University,Yinchuan 750021,China)
出处
《宁夏工程技术》
CAS
2021年第3期251-259,共9页
Ningxia Engineering Technology
关键词
生态移民
红寺堡区
小农户
生计风险
规避
ecological migration
Hongsipu district
small farmers
risk of livelihood
avoidance
