摘要
美国阿富汗反恐战争持续了20年,最终以大撤离收场。欲理解美军的最终撤离,有必要重新梳理自特朗普政府以来的美国的阿富汗反恐战略的转向。就特朗普政府时期的阿富汗反恐战略的转向而言,其战略目标转向推动美塔和谈与收缩阿富汗反恐战线,其战略原则转向"美国优先",战略手段转向"脱离接触"。背后的逻辑在于,体系层次上的实力分布、反恐战略环境的约束性塑造了战略调整态势,单元层次上领导人意志及政治精英博弈增强了内部刺激,体系与单元的复合作用催生了美国阿富汗反恐战略转向。而拜登政府时期,美国阿富汗反恐战略延续并强化了上述转向。总体而言,美国在阿富汗的战略转向既是一种止损,也是为将其国家安全战略重心转向大国战略竞争服务。
The U.S.has ended its 20-year anti-terrorism war in Afghanistan with a massive evacuation.In order to understand the cause of final evacuation,it is necessary to go through the shift of the U.S.counter-terrorism strategy in Afghanistan since the Trump Administration.In terms of the changes in the counter-terrorism strategy during the Trump Administration,the strategic objectives have been shifted to promoting the U.S.-Taliban peace talks and the withdrawing of U.S.forces from Afghanistan;the strategic principle has been changed to the"America First"policy;and the strategic measure has been transformed into the"disengagement strategy."The logic behind these changes is that the distribution of global and regional power and the restrictions of the counter-terrorism strategic environment at the system level,as independent variables,have made the strategic adjustments,while Donald Trump’s leadership and his game with political elites at the unit level,as intervening variables,have boosted the system stimulation.Under this circumstance,the combined effect of the system and the unit have changed the U.S.counter-terrorism strategy in Afghanistan.Furthermore,during the Biden Administration,the U.S.counter-terrorism strategy in Afghanistan has continued and reinforced above-mentioned changes during the Trump Administration.In general,the U.S.strategic shift in Afghanistan is not only a stop-loss,but can also help shift its national security strategic focus to great-power competition.
作者
胡晓
潘子阳
Hu Xiao;Pan Ziyang
出处
《印度洋经济体研究》
CSSCI
2021年第5期63-90,153,共29页
Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review
基金
2019年教育部人文社会科学项目“总体国家安全观背景下维护新疆安全对策研究”(项目编号:19XJJC810001)
西南政法大学国际恐怖主义问题研究中心2020年度专项规划项目“总体国家安全观指导下的反恐怖战略转型机制与创新路径研究”(项目编号:GJKBZYWTYJZX-YB-2020014)
2018年新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划人文社科项目“总体国家安全观背景下维护新疆意识形态安全研究”(项目编号:XJEDU2018SY007)的阶段性成果。
关键词
美阿关系
塔利班
阿富汗反恐战略转向
新古典现实主义
U.S.-Afghanistan Relations
Taliban
Turning of Counter-terrorism Strategy in Afghanistan
Neoclassical Realism
