摘要
鄱阳湖流域近年来旱涝灾害频发,原有的水量平衡被打破。因此,开展鄱阳湖地区潜在蒸散量及干旱效应研究具有重要意义。潜在蒸散量(Reference Evapotranspiration,ET0)是评价区域水资源配置和计算干旱指数的重要指标。以我国的鄱阳湖流域为研究区,依托统计降尺度模型,基于站点观测数据、气候模式数据以及美国环境中心再分析数据,运用遗传算法构建多模式集合,模拟未来情景下流域潜在蒸散量和干旱指数(Drought Index,DI)时空演变特征。结果表明:基于遗传算法构建的模式集合较单一气候模式或等权模式集合,模拟性能佳;RCP4.5、8.5情景下流域ET0均呈上升趋势,ET0变化的第一主周期分别为20年和4年,流域ET0未来空间变化特征表现为东高西低;RCP8.5情景下,鄱阳湖流域DI在年际上呈显著上升趋势,9—11月是干旱风险防范的关键时期;流域年DI变化的主周期为8年,流域的中东部地区将是未来干旱风险防范的重点区域。本研究为认识区域尺度下气候变化对潜在蒸散量的影响提供借鉴,同时为政府部门科学应对鄱阳湖流域未来时期可能出现的旱情提供的决策支持。
In recent years,droughts and floods have occurred frequently in the Poyang Lake Basin,and the original water balance has been broken.Therefore,it is of great strategic significance to carry out research on potential evapotranspiration and drought characteristics in the Poyang Lake Basin under climate change.Reference evapotranspiration(ET_(0))is an important indicator for evaluating the allocation of water resources in the region and calculating the drought index.This paper takes Poyang Lake basin as the research area,relies on statistical downscaling models,selects daily observation data,global climate model data,and reanalysis data from the US Environmental Center.Relying on the genetic algorithms to construct a model set.The temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of the potential evapotranspiration and Drought Index(DI)of the basin under the future climate context are estimated.The results show that the genetic algorithm′s model set has a better simulation performance than any single climate model and equal weight model set.Under the two scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5,the ET_(0) in the Poyang Lake Basin shows an upward trend.The first major cycles of ET_(0) change are 20 years and 4 years,respectively.The future spatial change characteristics of ET_(0) in the basin are characterized by high in east and low in west.From 1961 to 2010,the interannual change of the DI in the Poyang Lake Basin showed a rising trend.It was high in summer and autumn and low in spring and winter.Spatially,the south and southeast of the Basin were the high value areas.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,the DI of the basin shows a significant upward trend in the interannual period.Autumn is a key period for preventing drought risks in the river basin.Eight years is the first major cycle of annual DI change in the Basin.The central and eastern regions of the Poyang Lake Basin will be key areas for future drought risk prevention.This study provides a reference for understanding the impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration
作者
刘子豪
陆建忠
黄建武
陈晓玲
曾群
LIU Zihao;LU Jianzhong;HUANG Jianwu;CHEN Xiaoling;ZENG Qun(Key Laboratory of Geographic Process Analysis and Simulation of Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079,China;State Key Laboratory of Information Engineering in Surveying,Mapping and Remote Sensing,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)
出处
《生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第17期6936-6948,共13页
Acta Ecologica Sinica
基金
国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1506506)
武汉市应用基础前沿专项(2019020701011502)
江西省重点研发计划(20201BBG71002)
湖北省自然科学基金(2019CFB736)。
关键词
全球气候变化
模式集合
潜在蒸散量
干旱指数
鄱阳湖流域
global climate change
multi-model ensemble
potential evapotranspiration
drought index
Poyang Lake Basin
