摘要
通过寻找油菜产量构成的主要影响因子,并在此基础上构建油菜产量构成的估算方法。以油菜单株子粒重、单株荚果数及千粒重为研究对象,利用1995—2018年江苏省油菜农业气象观测资料及对应时段的气象资料、观测品种审定资料,结合油菜生理特性,确定油菜主要生育阶段内的关键气象因子、生育期特征、品种特性、种植密度是影响油菜产量构成的4类重要因素,整理出43个油菜生长影响因子,基于相关分析采用逐步回归法构建油菜产量构成估算模型,并对模型进行验证。结果表明,(1)油菜主要生育阶段内的关键气象因子、生育期特征、品种特性、种植密度4类要素中有多个因子与产量构成呈显著或极显著相关;(2)构建的3个油菜产量构成估算模型均通过了0.01水平的显著性检验,拟合优度好;(3)3个产量构成估算模型的组内、组间预测准确率达80%以上,其中千粒重估算模型的准确度达88.31%。油菜产量构成的估算模型具有较好的适用性,可为油菜精确测产提供理论依据和建模思路。
The aim of this study was to find the main influencing factors,and constructed the estimating method of oilseed rape yield components.Kernel weight per plant(KW),pods number per plant(PN)and 1000-kernel weight(1000 KW)were taken as the research object.Using the data of agricultural meteorology observation data and varieties examination of rapeseed,and meteorological data for the corresponding period from 1995 to 2018 in Jiangsu province,4 types of important factors,such as key meteorological factors in the main growth stages,growth period characteristics,varieties characteristics,planting density,were determined by combining with the physiological characteristics of oilseed rape.The 4 types of factors were collated to form 43 factors correlated with oilseed rape growth,whose correlations with yield elements were analyzed.Finally,the estimating models of oilseed rape yield elements were constructed with progressive regression method based on high correlation factors,and the prediction accuracy of each model was analyzed and verified.The results showed,(1)Multiple of the 43 correlated factors were significantly or extremely significantly correlated with oilseed rape yield elements;(2)The models for estimating 3 yield components all passed the significant test at the 0.01 level,and their goodness of fit were also good;(3)The estimating accuracies(EA)of the components of intra-group and inter-groups were also at high level,generally more than 80%,among which the EA of 1000 KW model was 88.31%.Researches show that the estimating models constructed in this paper have good applicability,which can provide theoretical basis and modeling idea for accurate measurement of oilseed rape yield.
作者
徐菲菲
熊世为
荀静
华俊玮
贾天山
XU Fei-fei;XIONG Shi-wei;XUN Jing;HUA Jun-wei;JIA Tian-shan(Chuzhou Meteorological Bureau of Anhui Province,Chuzhou 239000,Anhui,China)
出处
《湖北农业科学》
2021年第18期29-35,共7页
Hubei Agricultural Sciences
基金
国家重点研发计划课题(2019YFD1002201)
滁州市空气质量多尺度时间变化特征及其预报(KY201906)。
关键词
油菜
产量构成
影响因子
估算模型
oilseed rape
yield components
impact factors
estimating model
