摘要
自1998年实行全面住房改革以来,我国房地产市场持续繁荣,居民住房支出在居民收入中所占比例不断提高,对居民消费影响显著。将住房支出区分为住房购置支出和居住性支出,以1992—2019年我国城镇居民的相关数据为依据构建回归模型,探究两类支出变动对居民消费的影响效应,同时构建美国、日本2个国家的时间序列模型进行对比研究。结果表明:我国城镇居民住房购置支出、居住性支出对居民消费均具有一定程度的挤出效应;美日两国居民住房购置支出上升在一定程度上能够刺激消费,居住性支出上升对美国居民消费无显著影响,对日本居民消费起正向促进作用。基于以上结论,提出了引导居民住房消费理念、加强房地产市场监管、完善房地产金融市场的对策建议。
Since the implementation of the comprehensive housing reform in 1998,the real estate market in China has continued to boom,and the proportion of housing expenditure in residents income has been increasing,which has an increasingly significant impact on residents consumption.A regression model is constructed based on the relevant data of urban residents from 1992 to 2019 and the impact of changes in housing expenditures and residential expenditures on household consumption is explored.Meanwhile,time series models of the United States and Japan were constructed for comparative study.The results show that the housing purchase expenditure and residential expenditure in China have a certain degree of crowding-out effect on household consumption;the increase in purchase expenditure in the United States and Japan can stimulate consumption to a certain extent,and the rise in residential expenditure has no significant impact on American household consumption but positive promoting the consumption of Japanese residents.Based on the empirical results,a comparative analysis of the reasons why housing expenditure inhibits household consumption in China is made,and the relevant policy suggestions are put forward in the paper.
作者
卢彬彬
朱晓萌
马世昌
LU Binbin;ZHU Xiaomeng;MA Shichang(School of Urban Economics and Management,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 100044)
出处
《北京建筑大学学报》
2021年第3期94-102,共9页
Journal of Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(7210030749)
北京建筑大学科学研究基金(X18233)。
关键词
住房支出
居民消费
购置支出
居住性支出
housing expenditure
household consumption
acquisition expenditure
residential expenditure
