摘要
通过分析IMO定义的海上自主水面船(MASS)的人为风险因素,以找到重点防控对象、制定正确的防范措施为目的,提出了MASS在不同航行阶段的人为风险量化分析模型。首先通过STPA方法识别出船员及岸基人员的不安全控制行为,得到MASS存在的人为风险因素。随后对中国海事局的船舶事故调查报告进行分析,利用安全控制结构图筛选出与MASS人为风险因素相同的事故报告,利用数据挖掘对报告中的关键信息进行提取并分组,同时使用MATLAB神经网络工具箱函数构造神经网络模型,将分组后的信息作为数据源传入网络中进行训练并测试网络的有效性,最终得到网络的有效程度为95.25%。
With the analysis of human risks of Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship(MASS)defined by IMO as well as the purpose of finding key factors for prevention and formulating correct preventive measures,this paper proposes a quantitative analysis model of human risks of MASS in different stages of navigation.In the beginning,this paper adopts the STPA method to define the system-level hazards of MASS,construct the safety control structure diagram of MASS at the stages of navigation,identify the unsafe control behaviors of crew and shore-based personnel,so as to obtain the factors resulting in human risks of MASS.Then,by analyzing the 637 ship accident investigation reports released by the China Maritime Safety Administration(China MSA)from 2015 to 2020,this paper screens out 596 reports most likely to occur on MASS through safety control structure diagram,and then performs vectorization and normalization by mining data and extracting key information from the reports.All the collected information is grouped according to different occurrence dates and the stages of navigation.Meanwhile,this paper adopts the MATLAB neural network toolbox function to construct a BP neural network based on the RPROP algorithm,and then conveys the grouped data into the network as the feature vector to train and test the effectiveness of the network.By continuously optimizing and improving parameters for the network,the ultimate effectiveness has reached 95.25%.The result shows various weight of human risks at different stages of navigation.The fact that the crew/shore-based personnel fail to keep safe speed is the primary unsafe control behavior of MASS during all navigation stages;the fact that the crew/shore-based personnel fail to or incorrectly use the electronic navigation aids is the primary unsafe control behaviors of MASS at the stage of berth;the fact that the crew/shore-based personnel fail to or incorrectly sound the whistle is primary unsafe control behaviors of MASS at the stage of sailing in/out of the port;the fact that the crew/
作者
崔秀芳
邵祺
CUI Xiu-fang;SHAO Qi(College of Engineering,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)
出处
《安全与环境学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期1598-1606,共9页
Journal of Safety and Environment
