摘要
为更好地指导生态环境极其脆弱区域的抗旱减灾工作,基于天山南坡13个气象站点1961~2016年的气象数据,采用标准化降水指数(SSPI)、标准化降水蒸散指数(SSPEI)、综合气象干旱指数(CCI)和改进的综合气象干旱指数(MMCI),从干旱年际变化、干旱频率、典型干旱过程与空间分布等方面评估其在该区域的适用性。结果表明,各干旱指数对典型干旱年均有较好的识别能力,均表明研究区趋于湿润化趋势,但MMCI指数对不同等级干旱的表征较其他三种干旱指数效果更好;MMCI、CCI指数较SSPEI、SSPI指数对干旱过程的刻画能力更符合实际干旱机制;空间分布上,SSPI指数与SSPEI指数易出现轻估、重估及空报干旱事件的情况,CCI指数存在高估重旱的情况,MMCI指数整体诊断能力较好。综合分析表明,MMCI指数较SSPI、SSPEI、CCI指数在天山南坡具有更好的适用性。
In order to better guide the work of drought resistance and disaster mitigation in the areas with extremely fragile ecological environment,based on the meteorological data of 13 meteorological stations in the south slope of Tianshan Mountains from 1961 to 2016,the standardized precipitation index(SSPI),standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SSPEI),comprehensive meteorological drought index(CCI)and improved comprehensive meteorological drought index(MMCI)are used to evaluate its applicability in the region in terms of the annual variation of drought,drought frequency,the typical drought process and spatial distribution.The results show that the selected drought index has a good diagnostic ability for the drought events and all shows that the research area tends to humidify;However,the MMCIindex is more effective than the other three drought indexes in characterizing different levels of drought.The MMCI and CCIindexes are more consistent with the actual drought mechanism than SSPEIand SSPIindexes in describing the drought process.In terms of spatial distribution,the SSPIand SSPEIindices are prone to underestimating,overestimating,and reporting emptily drought events,while the CCIindex overestimates the severe drought,so the overall representation ability of MMCIindex is better.In conclusion,the MMCIindex has better applicability in the southern slopes of Tianshan Mountains.
作者
陈翠彦
穆振侠
周玉良
CHEN Cui-yan;MU Zhen-xia;ZHOU Yu-liang(College of Hydraulic and Civil Engineering,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Security and Water Disasters Prevention,Urumqi 830052,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Hefei University of Technology,Hefei 230009,China)
出处
《水电能源科学》
北大核心
2021年第9期14-17,共4页
Water Resources and Power
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51969029,51779067)
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目(2018D01A16)
新疆农业大学水利工程重点学科研究项目(SLXK2018-02)。
关键词
干旱识别
干旱指数
干旱频率
干旱过程
适用性
天山南坡
identification of drought
drought index
drought frequency
drought process
applicability
southern slopes of Tianshan Mountains
