摘要
目的:评价临终患者病情评估表预测晚期胃癌患者生存期的效果。方法:回顾分析2012年1月-2017年12月安宁疗护病房收治的晚期胃癌患者73例,绘制ROC曲线分析最佳评分界限值,并计算灵敏度、特异度、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和约登指数。根据最佳评分界限值,将73例患者分成低分(0~49.5)组52例和高分(50~)组21例,应用Kaplan-Meier法对两组晚期胃癌患者的生存期进行描述并绘制生存曲线。结果:当临终患者病情评分<50分时,ROC曲线下面积最大,为0.787(P<0.001)。预测晚期胃癌生存期<3周的灵敏度为88%,特异度为66.67%,阳性预测值为88%,阴性预测值为66.67%,约登指数为0.55。低分组的中位生存期为7 d(95%CI 3.04~10.98),高分组为27 d(95%CI 21.02~32.98),两组累积生存人数经Log Rank检验,χ2=22.210,P<0.001。结论:临终患者病情评分表与晚期胃癌患者生存期相关,能够有效预测患者的生存期。
Objective:To evaluate the effect of the dying patient’s condition assessment form in predicting the survival time of patients with advanced gastric cancer.Methods:Seventy-three patients with advanced gastric cancer admitted to the hospice care word from January 2012 to December 2017 were retrospectively analyzed,the ROC curve was drawn to analyze the best score threshold and calculate the sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value,negative predictive value and Youden index.According to the best score threshold,73 patients were divided into a low score(0~49.5)group of 52 cases and a high score(50~)group of 21 cases.The Kaplan-Meier method was used to describe the survival time of the two groups of patients with advanced gastric cancer and draw the survival curve.Results:When the dying patient’s condition score was less than 50 points,the area under the ROC curve was the largest,which was 0.787(P<0.001).The sensitivity for predicting the survival time of advanced gastric cancer<3 weeks was 88%,the specificity was 66.67%,the positive predictive value was 88%,the negative predictive value was 66.67%,and the Youden index was 0.55.The median survival time was 7 days(95%CI 3.04-10.98)in the low group and 27 days(95%CI 21.02-32.98)in the high group,and the cumulative survival time of the two groups was tested by Log Rank,χ2=22.210,P<0.001.Conclusion:The dying patient condition score is related to the survival time of patients with advanced gastric cancer,which can effectively predict the survival of patients.
作者
郁文恺
雷锐
陈健琳
潘菊美
刘登
施永兴
陈琦
罗维
YU Wenkai;LEI Rei;CHEN Jianlin;PAN Jumei;LIU Den;SHE Yongxin;CHEN Qi;LUO Wei(Hospice Department of Linfen Community Health Service Center of Jingan District,Shanghai,200435,China;Traditional Chinese Medicine Department of Linfen Community Health Service Center of Jingan District,Shanghai,200435,China;Linfen Community Health Service Center of Jingan District,Shanghai,200435,China;Research Department of Chinese Association for Life Care,Beijing,100026,China)
出处
《上海医药》
CAS
2021年第18期33-36,共4页
Shanghai Medical & Pharmaceutical Journal
基金
上海市静安区卫生和计划生育委员会课题(2018SQ06)
上海市卫生和计划生育委员会课题(2017青年347号)。
关键词
胃癌
安宁疗护
预测
生存期
生存分析
gastric cancer
hospice care
prediction
survival time
survival analysis
