摘要
选取2018年2月—2019年11月南极长城站气象台观测资料,对我国极地数值天气预报系统的风速、降水、气温和气压预报进行了检验。统计结果表明:预报风速误差呈正态分布,平均误差随预报风速增加有变大的趋势,短期预报好于长期预报,6级及以上大风时预报结果偏大的概率逐渐增大。预报降水量约是观测降水量的两倍,且在时间上和各降水量级上的误差分布特征一致,降水预报明显偏大。气温和气压的预报能够较好地反映天气形势变化,但存在明显的系统性偏差,其中气温的平均值偏小2.1℃,气压的平均值偏大2.4 hPa。
The wind speed,precipitation,air temperature and pressure forecasts of the Chinese polar numerical weather forecasting system is evaluated using the observation data from the Great Wall Station in the Antarctica from February 2018 to November 2019.The results show that the forecast wind speed error is in normal distribution and the mean error tends to become larger as the forecast wind speed increases.The results of shortterm forecast is better than that of the long-term forecast.There is a growing probability that the forecast wind speed is larger when it is greater than level 6.The predicted precipitation is about twice that of the observed precipitation,and the characteristics of error distribution are consistent in terms of time and each precipitation level.The prediction of air temperature and air pressure can reflect the observed weather system.However,there is an obvious mean value deviation with a lower temperature of 2.1℃and a high air pressure of 2.4 hPa.
作者
郭民权
沈辉
买小平
丁卓铭
张林
干兆江
孙启振
GUO Min-quan;SHEN Hui;MAI Xiao-ping;DING Zhuo-ming;ZHANG Lin;GAN Zhao-jiang;SUN Qi-zhen(Fujian Marine Forecasts,Fuzhou 350003 China;Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting,National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100081 China;Yiyuan Meteorological Bureau,Zibo 256100 China)
出处
《海洋预报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期69-75,共7页
Marine Forecasts
基金
国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFA0605902)
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41976010)。
关键词
长城站
数值天气预报系统
统计检验
极地
Great Wall Station
numerical weather forecasting system
statistical verification
polar region
