摘要
对零售商来说,缺货意味着部分订单得不到满足,进而导致利润损失;另一方面,缺货导致的后悔却能缓解消费者的策略性等待。因此是否采取补货,采取何种补货策略对零售商来说显得尤为重要。本文构建模型,比较当消费者具有缺货后悔倾向时,提前转运和紧急转运下零售商的最优补货决策。研究发现:当期初库存水平较高时,补货策略能带来利润改善;当期初库存水平较低时,补货缓解消费者的后悔预期进而带来利润损失,并且该损失超过更多交易量带来的利润提升,此时不采取补货反而更优。比较两种补货策略可知:当期初库存水平较高时,提前转运下因预期缺货率降低带来的损失少于紧急转运时因额外费用带来的损失,此时提前转运更优;当库存水平较低时,预期缺货率降低带来的损失较大,此时紧急转运更优。另外,相较于紧急转运带来额外费用,提前转运有着预测偏差。两种转运策略的相对优劣还受到策略自身的影响,即较高(低)的偏差成本或者较低(高)的额外费用使得零售商更倾向于选择紧急(提前)转运。
For retailers,stock out brought loss on demand,which harmed profit and availability regret caused by stock out,on the other hand,could alleviate consumer′s strategic waiting.Therefore,whether to replenish and which strategy to adopt became more pivotal questions to retailers.Considering this,a model had been established to compare the optimal replenishment strategies under PLT(preventive lateral transshipment) and ELT(emergency lateral transshipment), when consumers were prone to regret. As our research shows,when the initial inventory level is high,replenishment strategy can improve profits;when the initial inventory level is low,replenishment alleviates consumers′ regret expectation and then brings profit loss,and the loss exceeds the profit increase brought by more trading volume,so it is better not to replenish at this time. Further by comparing two transshipment strategies,PLT dominates when the initial stock is at a high level,in which the possible loss from increased availability in PLT is less than the loss the extra unit cost causes in ELT;on the contrary,ELT dominates when initial stock is at a low level,in which the possible loss from increased availability in PLT is greater.In addition,compared with the extra cost brought by ELT,PLT has predicting deviation.Then the relative pros and cons are also affected by the strategies themselves,i.e.a high(low)deviation cost or a low(high)extra unit cost enables retailer to adopt ELT(PLT).
作者
官振中
刘广宁
GUAN Zhenzhong;LIU Guangning(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,China)
出处
《工业工程与管理》
北大核心
2021年第4期77-85,共9页
Industrial Engineering and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71572154)
四川科技厅重大前沿项目(2017JY0225)。
关键词
缺货后悔
策略型消费者
提前转运
紧急转运
availability regret
strategic consumers
preventive lateral transshipment
emergency lateral transshipment
