摘要
作战效能评估一般指武器装备在相应的作战背景下,针对具体的作战对手的作战能力的评估。对能力的评估需要作战试验、军事演习等重大活动数据的积累,但由于试验成本、兵力短缺、环境构设复杂等条件的限制,作战效能评估的准确度、置信度一直受制于所需样本量的不足。文章针对传统小样本问题处理方法的缺点,引出Bays Bootstrap方法,并实例验证了该方法的合理性以及在区间估计等方面的精确性等优势。最后将该方法应用于某舰艇作战试验中对空拦截能力的作战效能评估,提高了结果的置信度。
The evaluation of combat effectiveness generally refers to the evaluation of the combat capability of the weapon equipment against the specific combat opponents under the corresponding combat background.However,due to the limitation of test cost,shortage of forces,complex environment and the other conditions,the accuracy and confidence of combat effectiveness evaluation are always limited by the lack of sample size.In view of the shortcomings of traditional small sample processing methods,this paper introduces Bays Bootstrap method,and verifies the rationality of the method and the accuracy of interval estimation by examples.Finally,the method is applied to the combat effectiveness evaluation of air interception capability in a naval ship combat test,which improves the confidence of the result.
作者
张家宾
ZHANG Jiabin(No.91404 Troops of PLA,Qinhuangdao 066000)
出处
《计算机与数字工程》
2021年第8期1516-1519,1565,共5页
Computer & Digital Engineering
