摘要
哈萨克斯坦的经济发展方式转变,不只在于产业结构调整优化,还在于兼顾解决转移就业问题,实现经济高质量发展和普惠性增长。基于1995—2019年哈萨克斯坦的统计数据,运用结构偏离度、协调系数和协整检验,对哈萨克斯坦产业结构与就业结构的协调性进行实证分析。结果表明:哈萨克斯坦的产业结构与就业结构均呈现“三二一”特点,但重工业内部结构不合理等问题抑制了国民经济的就业创造效应,且产业结构与就业结构协调性上升缓慢,提升空间较大;影响因素分析结果显示,工业化水平、出口依存度对协调度的影响为负,而城市化水平对协调度的影响为正。因此,哈萨克斯坦要改善产业结构与就业结构协调性问题,应加强引导外资、社会资本向非资源性产业靠拢,促进工业结构优化升级;加快城市化建设与发展,畅通劳动力就业转移渠道;进一步推进工业结构优化和出口多元化发展,完善产业链,拓宽就业渠道。
The transformation of Kazakhstan’s economic development mode lies not only in the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure,but also in solving the problem of transferring employment,achieving high-quality economic development and inclusive growth.Based on the statistical data of Kazakhstan from 1995 to 2019,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the coordination of industrial structure and employment structure in Kazakhstan by using structural deviation,coordination coefficient and cointegration test.The results show that Kazakhstan’s industrial structure and employment structure present the characteristics of“three two one”,but the unreasonable internal structure of heavy industry inhibits the employment creation effect of the national economy.And the coordination of industrial structure and employment structure rises slowly,with a large space for improvement.The results of the influencing factor analysis show that the influence of industrialization level and export dependence on coordination coefficient is negative,while the influence of urbanization level on coordination coefficient is positive.Therefore,in order to improve the coordination of industrial structure and employment structure,Kazakhstan should strengthen the guidance of foreign capital and social capital to non-resource industries,and promote the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,speed up the construction and development of urbanization,smooth labor employment transfer,and further promote the diversified development of industrial internal structure and export structure,improve the industrial chain,and broaden employment channels.
作者
谢燕红
徐妍
Xie Yanhong;Xu Yan(Business School,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830017,China)
出处
《无锡商业职业技术学院学报》
2021年第4期43-51,共9页
Journal of Wuxi Vocational Institute of Commerce
基金
国家社会科学基金青年项目“国家价值链重构视阈下丝绸之路经济带核心区制造业竞争优势提升研究”(16CJL045)
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金项目“全生命周期视角下新疆工业碳足迹演变及低碳化转型对策研究”(2019D01A68)
新疆师范大学中巴经济走廊与南亚经济研究中心招标课题“‘中巴经济走廊’视域下南疆地区新型工业化水平评价及提升研究”(XJNURWJD012017B04)。
关键词
哈萨克斯坦
产业结构
就业结构
协调性
影响因素
Kazakhstan
industrial structure
employment structure
coordination
influencing factors
