摘要
公共交通客流预测是公交线网优化不可或缺的关键环节,对城市公交规划设计起着重要的作用。文章在充分获取调查某三线城市城区交通现状的基础上,结合函数法、福莱特法和马尔可夫链法三种方法模型,采用四阶段法对该城区公交客流进行预测,并运用交通规划软件TransCAD得到各交通小区间的公交发生量、吸引量以及公交出行期望线图,为交通规划管理者和决策者提供科学的理论依据,具有现实意义。
Public transportation passenger flow prediction is an indispensable key link in the optimization of public transportation network,and it plays an important role in urban public transportation planning and design.On the basis of fully obtaining and investigating the current status of urban traffic in a third-tier city,this paper combines the function method,the Frator method and the Markov chain method to predict the urban bus passenger flow using a four-stage method and uses traffic planning software TransCAD obtains the bus production,attraction volume and bus travel desire line diagrams between traffic districts,and provides scientific theoretical basis for traffic planning managers and decision makers,which has practical significance.
作者
关醒权
闫磊
吴鲁香
GUAN Xingquan;YAN Lei;WU Luxiang(School of Traffic Engineering,Shenyang Jianzhu University,Shenyang 110168,China)
出处
《物流科技》
2021年第9期76-80,共5页
Logistics Sci-Tech
