摘要
受季风性气候影响,月径流存在突变且不平滑,具有变异性,直接运用灰色自记忆模型模拟和预测月径流,不能取得良好的精度。提出一种全新的月径流平滑方法(去季节波动平滑法),首先运用季节指数对月径流“去季节波动”,再运用三点平滑法对去除季节波动后的月径流进行平滑处理,最后运用灰色自记忆模型对平滑后数据进行模拟和预测。应用于湖南省炎陵水文站,结果表明,去季节波动平滑后月径流拟合和预测值平均误差都小于20%。同时使用短期月径流资料,运用本方法进行月径流模拟和预报,也满足规范要求。
Affected by the monsoon climate,there are abrupt changes,non-smoothing and variation in monthly runoff.However,good accuracy cannot be realized if the monthly runoff is simulated and predicted directly by the gray self-memory model.This paper proposes a new monthly runoff smoothing method(that is,smoothing method without seasonal fluctuations).First,the seasonal index is used to remove the“seasonal fluctuations”of monthly runoff,then,the three-point smoothing method is applied to smooth the monthly runoff without seasonal fluctuations,and finally the gray self-memory model is adopted to simulate and predict the smoothed data.After being applied to the Yanling Hydrological Station in Hunan Province,the results show that the average error of fitting and forecasting value of monthly runoff after seasonal fluctuation removing and smoothing is less than 20%compared with the measured value.At the same time,the short-term monthly runoff data is used to simulate and forecast monthly runoff by this method,which also meets the requirements of the specification.
作者
万阳
杨海燕
汤静静
WAN Yang;YANG Haiyan;TANG Jingjing(HNAC Science&Technology Co.,Ltd.,Changsha 410000,China;Dazhou Branch of Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau of Sichuan Province,Dazhou 635000,China;Qingyuan Branch of Hydrological Bureau of Guangdong Province,Qingyuan 511500,China)
出处
《人民珠江》
2021年第9期54-59,共6页
Pearl River
关键词
月径流
水文预报
灰色自记忆
季节指数
三点平滑法
monthly runoff
hydrological forecast
grey self-memory
seasonal index
three-point smoothing method
