摘要
业绩预告的经验品属性使得资本市场如何预判业绩预告的准确性显得尤为重要,但已有研究难以为资本市场提供简单直接且便于观测的预判标准.本文通过挖掘业绩预告类型可能隐藏的盈余管理动机,以2010-2018年度在资产负债表日后披露业绩预告的A股上市公司为研究对象,实证考察盈余管理动机是否以及如何影响业绩预告准确性.实证研究发现,盈余管理动机越强,业绩预告的准确性越低;作用机制检验发现,审计师对盈余管理动机较强的公司进行了更多的审计调整,使得定期报告中的盈余水平偏离了业绩预告中的盈余水平,从而导致了业绩预告准确性的降低;在控制内生性问题和稳健性测试后实证结果保持不变.研究表明业绩预告类型隐藏的盈余管理动机信息,可以帮助资本市场预判业绩预告的准确性.
It’s the experience good property of earnings preannouncement that makes how to predict the accuracy of the earnings preannouncement being particularly important. However, it is difficult to provide a simple and direct prediction standard for capital market. We believes that the earnings preannouncement types may hide the information of earnings management motivation. We empirically investigated whether and how the earnings management motivation affected the accuracy of earnings preannouncement using the sample of A-share listed companies that disclosed the earnings preannouncement after the balance sheet date from 2010 to 2018. We found that the stronger earnings management motivation, the lower accuracy of earnings preannouncement. What’s more, we found that auditors made more audit adjustments to companies with strong earnings management incentives, then leading to the decrease of the accuracy of earnings preannouncement. The research conclusion still holds after robustness test and endogenetic test. The results of our research show that the earnings preannouncement types which hiding earnings management motivation information can help the capital market to predict the accuracy of the earnings preannouncement.
作者
张硕
赵莳雷
傅绍正
ZHANG Shuo;ZHAO Shi-lei;FU Shao-zheng
出处
《科学决策》
CSSCI
2021年第7期91-111,共21页
Scientific Decision Making
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(项目编号:72002147)。
关键词
业绩预告
盈余管理
准确性
审计调整
earnings preannouncement
earnings management
accuracy
audit adjustments
