摘要
本文利用标准引力模型,采用对数-线性方程组法精确量化多边阻力,在评价2003—2018年沿线国家多边阻力变化情况的基础上,采用Shapley法研究其背后的成因。研究结果表明:沿线国家多边阻力呈明显下降趋势,在不同区域与分位点表现出较大差异,相较于中东欧、中亚和西亚北非,蒙俄和南亚多边阻力较高,东南亚降幅较大;沿线国家随着多边阻力分位点提高大体呈现由贸易大国向贸易小国分布的转变;沿线国家多边阻力主要由第三国GDP和第三国间贸易所形成的转移效应所致,其次是贸易成本因素,其中贸易便利化贡献强于贸易自由化。
Using the standard gravity model,this paper proposed to accurately quantify the multilateral resistance using the log-linear system of equations method to evaluate the change of multilateral resistance in the countries along the route from 2003 to 2018,based on which the causes behind it were identified using the Shapley method. The research shows that the multilateral resistance of the countries along the Belt and Road presents a significant downward trend,great differences in different regions and quantile points. Compared with Central and Eastern Europe,Central Asia,West Asia and North Africa,the multilateral resistance of Mongolia,Russia and South Asia is higher and the decline of Southeast Asia is greater. The distribution of countries along the Belt and Road has changed from small trading countries to big countries with the increase of multilateral resistance points. The multilateral resistance of countries along the Belt and Road is mainly caused by GDP and the transfer effect of trade between third countries,followed by the trade cost factor,of which the contribution of trade facilitation is stronger than that of trade liberalization.
作者
葛纯宝
于津平
GE Chunbao;YU Jinping(School of Business,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210093)
基金
国家社会科学基金重大研究专项“推动‘一带一路’贸易和投资自由化便利化研究:量化评价与推进战略”(18VDL014)。