摘要
研究干旱变化对区域生态环境保护和可持续发展具有重要意义。为评价黑龙江西部半干旱区的干旱变化特性,基于1961~2015年6个站点的气象数据,推求不同时间尺度(1、3、6、12、24个月)的标准化降水指数(SPI)和标准化降水-蒸散指数(SPEI);构建线性回归模型评价主要气象因子对降雨的影响以及SPI和SPEI之间的线性拟合程度。结果表明:不同时间尺度的SPI和SPEI的变化过程相似,呈现轻微的湿润趋势;极端气象事件的评价结果与研究区历史上极端气象事件发生的年份一致;SPI与SPEI对时间步长为12个月的干旱评估准确性更高;在气温、日射量、湿度、风速四个因子中,气温对降雨的影响程度最大;步长为12个月的SPI与SPEI的拟合程度达80%以上。
Research on the regional climate change has a great significance in protecting the regional ecological environment and sustainable development.The main objective of this study is to assess the main characteristics of drought for the semiarid western Heilongjiang Province.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)were estimated for various time scales(1,3,6,12,and 24 months)using the meteorological data of six stations in a time span of1961-2015.Linear Regression Analysis Models(LRA)were developed to evaluate the impacts of the main meteorological factors on precipitation and the linear fitting degree between SPI and SPEI.The results indicate that(1)SPI and SPEI for different time scales exhibit the similar change processes,that show slight wetting trends;(2)the evaluation results of extreme meteorological events are consistent with the years of historical extreme meteorological events in the study area;(3)SPI and SPEI are more suitable for drought assessment for a time scale of 12 months;(4)temperature has the greatest impact on precipitation among the temperature,solar radiation,humidity and wind speed;(5)the fitting degree between SPI and SPEI of time scale of 12 month is more than 80%.
作者
Mahmoud M.Hassanien
黄金柏
王斌
顾准
Mahmoud M.Hassanien;HUANG Jinbai;WANG Bin;GU Zhun(College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering,Yangzhou University,Yangzhou 225009,China;Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation(MWRI),Assiut 71515,Egypt;College of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agriculture University,Harbin 150030,China)
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期95-101,108,共8页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41271046)
扬州大学青蓝工程-2018青年学术带头人项目
2020年扬州市科学技术软科学项目(202068)
2019年扬州大学科技创新培育基金项目(2019CXJ069)。
