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多灾种综合风险评估与防范的理论认知:风险防范“五维”范式 被引量:12

The Theory Foundations of Multi-hazards Risk Assessment and Governance:A Five-Dimensional Paradigm for Integrated Risk Governance
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摘要 在气候变化、经济全球化和快速城市化背景下,人类社会所面临的多灾种巨灾风险不断增加。综合风险防范事关人民群众生命财产安全与社会和谐稳定,是国家公共安全体系建设和可持续发展战略实施的重要内容。在系统梳理世界综合减灾与风险防范行动经验的基础上,客观审视我国防灾减灾救灾工作中存在的问题,从实际国情出发,提出构建中国综合灾害风险防范"五维"范式,即:理论建构引领实践探索、统筹谋划健全"一案三制"、综合思维优化管理模式、有的放矢制定应对策略和多措并举提升防范能力。面对日益复杂严峻的多灾种巨灾风险形势,需不断加强风险形成机制及其多维影响研究和风险普查、评估与监测预警工作,加快推进体制机制改革,完善法律保障和应急预案体系,打造政府主导、社会共治管理模式,依托现代科技实现风险管理信息化、智能化、精细化转型,为扎实提升我国综合灾害风险防范能力、实现安全与发展的有机统筹提供强有力的支撑和全方位的保障。 In the context of climate change,economic globalization and rapid urbanization,human society is facing increasing multi-hazards risk. Integrated Risk Governance(IRG)is a matter of the safety of people’s lives and property as well as social harmony and stability. Also,IRG is an important part of the national public security system and the sustainable development strategy in China. On the basis of systematically combing the experience of the world’s disaster risk governance actions and objectively examining the existing problems in China’s practical work,we put forward a five-dimensional paradigm for integrated risk governance,starting from the actual national conditions of China. Specifically,the five dimensions include constructing theories,improving systems,optimizing management modes,developing coping strategies and formulating control measures. In the face of the increasingly complex and severe multi-hazards risk,we need to constantly strengthen the research on risk formation mechanisms and its multi-dimensional impacts,and push on the work of risk survey,assessment,monitoring,and early warning. Meanwhile,it is necessary to promote the reform of systems,which primarily includes incorporating the powerful economic and social forces in IRG,improving the legal system to provide essential protection for the cooperation between government and the social forces,and enhancing the effectiveness of contingency plans. Besides,it is also important to achieve the transition of informatization, intellectualization, and refinement management in IRG relying on modern science and technology. Overall, the five-dimensional paradigm is designed to provide strong support and all-round guarantee for the improvement of IRG and the co-ordinated planning of safety and development in China.
作者 王军 李梦雅 吴绍洪 WANG Jun;LI Mengya;WU Shaohong(School of Geographic Sciences,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Research Center for Urban Public Security,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China;Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China)
出处 《地球科学进展》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2021年第6期553-563,共11页 Advances in Earth Science
基金 国家社会科学基金重大项目“多灾种重大灾害风险评价、综合防范与城市韧性研究”(编号:18ZDA105) 国家重点研发计划项目“多灾种重大自然灾害综合风险评估与防范技术研究(编号:2018YFC1508803)”资助。
关键词 多灾种 综合风险防范 “五维”范式 Multi-hazards risk Integrated Risk Governance Five-dimensional paradigm
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