摘要
本文选取2001年1月至2020年3月中国经济金融数据,结合MSVAR模型进行实证检验。研究表明,过去20年间我国宏观经济运行可划分为较为明显的通货膨胀压力、物价平稳温和增长以及通货紧缩压力3个区制。在不同区制状态下,央行货币政策及预期管理对经济系统在产出效果、物价水平、资产价格等方面存在较为明显的非对称性。模型估计结果支持以预期管理指数、财政支出、货币供应量、银行贷款余额作为描述三区制经济状态的指标变量。分区制的累计脉冲响应分析表明,在不同状态区制下,货币政策及央行与市场主体的沟通情况对产出效果、物价水平、资产价格等经济指标的影响存在非对称性影响。
This essay selects the economic and financial data of China from January 2001 to March 2020,and uses MSVAR model for empirical test to prove that the macroeconomic operation of China in the past 20 years can be divid‐ed into three regimes:inflationary pressures,a stable and moderate increase for prices and deflationary pressures.More‐over,under different regimes,the monetary policy and expectation management of the People’s Bank of China work asymmetrically at the economic systems in terms of output effects,prices level,asset prices,etc.The estimated re‐sults of the model in support of the use for the expectation management index,the financial expenditure,the money sup‐ply and the bank loan balance as target variables to describe the economic states of the three regimes.The analysis of accumulative impulse response for different regimes shows that the expectation management index,the money supply and the bank loan balance work asymmetrically at the economic systems under different regimes.
作者
胥冰
白纪年
黄玉颖
马兰
Xu Bing;Bai Jinian;Huang Yuying;Ma Lan(The People’s Bank of China Yinchuan Central Sub-branch,Ningxia Yinchuan 750001)
出处
《西部金融》
2021年第6期31-38,共8页
West China Finance
关键词
货币政策
预期管理
非对称性
Monetary Policy
Expectation Management
Asymmetry
