摘要
本文运用2007-2019年我国31个省市自治区的动态面板数据,通过构建系统GMM模型实证分析财政支出结构对产业结构的影响,并针对不同时间跨度下的模型分析,进一步考察经济进入"新常态"后的影响差异。研究发现:总体看,财政投资性支出、民生性支出占比提升以及消费性支出占比下降能够促进产业结构升级;细分看,投资性支出占比提升会明显提高第三产业产值占GDP比重,但一定程度上会降低第三产业生产效率,民生性支出对二者均有较强的促进作用,消费性支出则对二者均会产生负效应。经济进入"新常态"后,投资性支出对产业结构升级的促进效率有所降低,民生性支出的促进效率进一步提升,消费性支出的影响变化不大。
Based on the dynamic panel data of 31 provinces and autonomous regions in China from 2007 to 2019,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of fiscal expenditure structure on industrial structure by building a System GMM model,and further investigates the differences after the economy enters the"new normal".The results show that:on the whole,the increase of the proportion of financial investment expenditure,people's livelihood expenditure and the decrease of the proportion of consumption expenditure can promote the upgrading of industrial structure;on the other hand,the increase of the proportion of investment expenditure will significantly increase the proportion of the output value of the tertiary industry in GDP,but to a certain extent,it will reduce the production efficiency of the tertiary industry,and people's livelihood expenditure has a strong promoting effect on both,After the economy enters the"new normal",the promotion efficiency of investment expenditure on the upgrading of industrial structure is reduced,the promotion efficiency of people's livelihood expenditure is further improved,and the impact of consumption expenditure has little change.
作者
康海洁
KANG Haijie(People's Bank of China Tianjin Branch,Tianjin 300040)
出处
《西部金融》
2021年第4期46-51,共6页
West China Finance
关键词
财政支出
产业结构
GMM模型
Structure of fiscal
expenditure industrial structure
GMM model
