摘要
宏观税负关乎政府职能的发挥和微观主体活力的释放。本文以1997年-2020年全国季度数据为样本,基于ARDL模型的实证结果表明:政府职能、经济发展与产业结构变化、货币供给M2是宏观税负的长期影响因素;近年来实施的普惠性与结构性减税政策具有降低宏观税负的影响。Granger因果检验表明财政收支存在"互相影响"的双向因果关系。建议以有利于经济中长期发展为目标,调整宏观税负水平,优化财政收支结构,建立财政收支中长期匹配机制和动态平衡关系。
Macro tax burden is related to both the exertion of government functions and the invigoration of the micro entities vitality.This paper provides empirical evidence of determinants of macro tax burden with ARDL mode using national quarterly data for the period 1997-2020.The finding shows that government functions,economic development and change of industrial structure,and money supply M2 are the long-term influencing factors of macro tax burden,and that the general-benefit and structural tax cuts policies have the effect of lightening the macro tax burden.Grange causality test shows that there is a "fiscal synchronization" relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure.It is suggested that the macro tax burden should be adjusted to benefit the medium and long-term economic development,the structure of fiscal revenue and expenditure should be optimized,and the medium and long-term matching mechanism and dynamic balance relationship between fiscal revenue and expenditure should be established.
作者
杨娟
Yang Juan(The People’s bank of China Kunming Central Sub-branch,YunNan Kupming 650021)
出处
《西部金融》
2021年第4期21-27,共7页
West China Finance
关键词
宏观税负
政府职能
产业结构
货币供给
减税降费
Macro Tax Burden
Government Functions
Industrial Structure
Money Supply
Tax and Fee cuts
