摘要
本文构建了一个包含新兴产业和传统产业两类厂商的DSGE模型,并在中央银行部门引入传统货币政策、宏观审慎政策以及三种包含状态转变的结构性货币政策,分析经济转型升级过程中各种政策工具单独使用或协调搭配的效果。研究发现,在仅使用一种政策的情况下,与不含状态转变的政策相比,包含状态转变的政策能更快地熨平经济波动;在五种政策工具中,再贷款利率政策最有助于经济稳定,而定向降准政策和宏观审慎政策则可以较好地兼顾经济稳定和产业升级两个目标。在使用多种政策的情况下,包含状态转变的政策通过适当组合,可以改善单一政策造成的短期经济波动,从而更好地兼顾多重目标的平衡和实现社会福利最大化。
This paper analyses the effects of the central bank’s various policy tools used individually and in a coordinated manner in the process of economic transformation and upgrading.It first builds a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model that includes two types of manufacturers belonging to emerging and traditional industries,and then introduces traditional monetary policies,macro-prudential policies and three types of structural monetary policy tools with regime-switching in the central bank model.The results indicate that regime-switching policy tools produce a better stabilization effect than constant-coefficient policy tools when only using one policy tool.Among the five policies,the re-lending interest rate policy is the most conducive to achieving economic stability,while the targeted RRR cut and macro-prudential policies can better balance the objectives of both economic stability and industrial upgrading.In the case of using multiple policy tools simultaneously,an appropriate policy mix that includes regime-switching reactions can effectively reduce the short-term economic fluctuations accompanying a single policy,thus achieving better balance between multiple objectives and optimizing social welfare.
作者
马勇
陈点点
Ma Yong;Chen Diandian
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第7期55-78,共24页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
国家社科基金重大项目“中国建设现代中央银行调控制度研究”(21ZDA044)的资助。
关键词
经济转型
货币政策
状态转变
动态随机一般均衡
economic transformation
monetary policy
regime-switching
dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)
