摘要
基于土地开发过程中的不确定性以及土地转换不可逆的假设,将生态保护区土地最优开发决策问题转化为一个实物期权理论框架下的最优随机控制模型,并将开发速度内生化,同时引入单位面积生态效益变量,运用动态规划原理建立了相应的贝尔曼方程,推导了方程的适当边界条件,并采用有限差分法数值求解关键方程,最后基于三江源地区的数据对土地开发与生态保护的动态最优路径展开数值求解讨论。结果表明,该模型能确定土地开发过程中的最优转换状态以及不同情形下的开发决策:1)土地期权价值与生态用地面积占比并非线性关系,土地开发过程中存在一个最优转换状态;2)农业经济效益增加,将加速土地转换进程,且土地最优转换状态中农业生产用地面积增加;3)生态系统自身的保护效益弹性变大,将减缓土地转换进程;4)生态价值不确定性变大,将加速土地转换进程。
Based on the uncertainty in the process of land development and the assumption of irreversibility of land conversion,the decision-making problem of land development is ransformed into an optimal stochastic control model under the framework of real option theory,while allowing for a feedback between conversion decisions and the conservation benefits. A new variable‘ecological value per unit area’is introduced to establish corresponding Bellman equation using the principle of dynamic programming. The appropriate boundary conditions of the equations derived;and the finite difference method is used to solve the key equation numerically. The dynamic optimal path of land development and ecological protection is discussed numerically based on the relevant data of the Three Rivers Source Region.The results show that:(1)there is a non-linear relationship between the land option value and the proportion of the ecological land area,which leads to an optimal conversion state in the process of land development;(2)the increase of agricultural benefits will accelerate the process of land conversion,and the area of agricultural production land will increase in the optimal conversion state of land;(3)the increasing elasticity of ecosystem protection benefits will slow down the land conversion process;(4)the increasing uncertainty of ecological value will accelerate the land conversion process.
作者
李静
陆苏怡
起晓星
杨海生
LI Jing;LU Suyi;QI Xiaoxing;YANG Haisheng(Lingnan College,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519080,China;School of Government,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)
出处
《中山大学学报（自然科学版）（中英文）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期60-75,共16页
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni
基金
广州市科技计划项目(201904010189)
广东省软科学研究计划项目(2019A101002015,2016A070706004)
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金(2019A1515012018)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(20wkzd10)
中国博士后科学基金(2019M653240)
国家社会科学基金(19VHQ004)。
关键词
土地开发决策
三江源地区
生态保护
实物期权模型
有限差分法
land development decisions
ecological protection
Three Rivers Source Region
real option model
finite difference method
