摘要
基于CMIP6的16个全球模式试验数据,多模式集合预估了《巴黎协定》1.5℃/2℃温升目标下“一带一路”倡议的主要陆域未来气温和降水变化。与观测相比较,多模式集合能够比较准确地刻画“一带一路”主要陆域1995~2014年气温和降水的空间结构特征。在SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5三种不同路径情景下,相对于工业革命前(1850~1900年),全球升温1.5℃与2℃分别将发生在2020年代中后期与2040年左右。全球1.5℃与2℃温升目标下,预计“一带一路”陆域平均的气温分别显著升高1.84℃和2.43℃,两者相差0.59℃,模式间标准差分别为0.18℃和0.21℃;区域平均的降水分别显著增加20.14 mm/a和30.02 mm/a,相差9.88 mm/a,模式间标准差分别为10.79 mm/a和13.72 mm/a。两种温升目标下,“一带一路”主要陆域气温空间上均表现为一致性显著增暖,高纬度的增温幅度普遍比低纬度大;降水变化具有明显的空间差异性,地中海与黑海地区、中国南部至中南半岛地区减少,其他地区的降水普遍增加。P-E指数表征的干旱化未来在欧洲地区、中国南部至中南半岛地区、南亚印度东部地区、东南亚和赤道非洲中部地区达到最大。
Surface air temperature and precipitation changes over major land regions of the Belt and Road Initiative under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ climate targets are projected by the multi-model ensemble(MME)method based on the 16-member CMIP6.The MME mean simulations of 16-member CMIP6 can capture observed spatial structures in surface air temperature and precipitation for the period of 1995−2014.Relative to the pre-industrial levels(1850−1900),the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ will occur in the middle and late 2020s and around 2040,respectively,for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5(SSP2-4.5),SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.Under the 1.5℃ and 2℃ climate targets,the MME mean projections show that averaged over major land regions of the Belt and Road Initiative,annual average surface air temperature will increase significantly by 1.84℃ and 2.43℃ with a difference of 0.59℃;for the standard deviations between 16-CMIP6 models,they are 0.18℃ and 0.21℃.Annual precipitation will increase significantly by 20.14 mm/a and 30.02 mm/a,with a difference of 9.88 mm/a;and the standard deviations between 16-CMIP6 models are 10.79 mm/a and 13.72 mm/a.Spatially,annual mean surface air temperature are projected to generally have significant increases over the whole study areas compared with the pre-industrial levels under the two global warming targets with the stronger warming magnitudes at high latitudes than at low latitudes.Future precipitation variations are projected to show clear spatial differences:Annual mean precipitation will decrease over the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions,yet increase over most of the remaining areas.The aridity represented by P-E index will reach the maximum in Europe,Southern China to Indochina Peninsula,South Asia,Eastern India,Southeast Asia and Central Africa.
作者
庄园煌
张井勇
梁健
ZHUANG Yuanhuang;ZHANG Jingyong;LIANG Jian(Center for Monsoon System Research,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;College of Earth and Planetary Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;Tianjin Meteorological Information Center,Tianjin 300074)
出处
《气候与环境研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第4期374-390,共17页
Climatic and Environmental Research
基金
国家重点研发计划项目2018YFA0606501。
