摘要
[目的]研究耕地空间分布格局与演变的驱动机制,为严守耕地保护红线及宁夏沿黄生态经济带制定耕地资源保护政策与措施,优化耕地保护格局提供参考。[方法]利用土地变更调查数据和社会经济数据,采用核密度、空间自相关、土地利用动态度、转移矩阵、二元Logistic回归模型等方法,分析2010—2018年宁夏沿黄生态经济带耕地的空间分布、时空演变及其驱动机制。[结果]①研究区耕地的空间分布呈现出明显的差异性,整体以中、低密度区分布为主,且由低、高密度区向中密度区演变;②耕地空间分布呈正相性,高—高聚类区域主要集中在银川平原,低—低聚类区域分布在灵武市东部、沙坡头区中西部等生态相对脆弱区;③研究区耕地的双向流转是以未利用地—耕地—建设用地为主的生态转换系统,耕地数量稳中有增;④耕地动态度变化有明显的空间聚类现象,且与距离城市的距离成正比,与城市规模成反比;⑤自然条件因子是耕地增加的主要驱动因素,社会经济因子是耕地减少主要驱动因素。[结论]宁夏沿黄经济带耕地保护基本实现动态平衡。耕地变化是以一定的自然条件因子为基础,受经济、人口等社会经济因子综合作用下的效益择优过程。
[Objective]The spatial distribution patterns of cultivated land and the driving mechanisms of its evolution were studied in order to provide a reference for strictly observing the red line of cultivated land protection,and to formulate farmland resource protection policies and measures in order to optimize the pattern of farmland protection in the Ningxia Eco-economic Belt along the Yellow River.[Methods]Land change survey data and socio-economic data,in conjunction with methods such as nuclear density,spatial autocorrelation,land use dynamics,transfer matrix,and binary Logistic regression modeling were used to analyze the spatial distribution,spatio-temporal evolution,and driving mechanism of cultivated land in the study area from 2010 to 2018.[Results]①The spatial distribution of cultivated land in the study area showed obvious differences.The overall distribution was mainly in the middle and low density areas,and the distribution evolved from low and high density areas to medium density areas.②The spatial distribution of arable land was positive.The high-high clustering areas were mainly concentrated in the Yinchuan Plain,and the low-low clustering areas were located in the eastern part of Lingwu City,the central and western parts of Shapotou,and other ecologically fragile areas.③The two-way transfer of cultivated land in the study area was an ecological conversion system dominated by unused land-cultivated land-construction land.The amount of cultivated land had been steadily increasing.④Cultivated land dynamic changes had obvious spatial clustering that was proportional to the distance from the city and inversely proportional to the city size.⑤Natural condition factors were the main driving factors for increases in cultivated land,and socioeconomic factors were the main driving factors for decreases in cultivated land.[Conclusion]The protection of cultivated land in the Ningxia Eco-economic Belt along the Yellow River has basically achieved a dynamic balance.Cultivated land change is based on certa
作者
舒瑞
孙鸿睿
邹业斌
侯琴
Shu Rui;Sun Hongrui;Zou Yebin;Hou Qin(Ningxia Natural Resources Survey and Investigation Institute,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750002,China;School of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering,Ningxia University,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750021,China)
出处
《水土保持通报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期267-274,F0003,共9页
Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
宁夏自然科学基金项目“西部地区耕地数量—质量—生态、粮食安全耦合机理及预警防范机制研究”(2020AAC03478)。
关键词
耕地
时空演变
沿黄生态经济带
LOGISTIC回归模型
宁夏回族自治区
cultivated land
spatio-temporal evolution
eco-economic belt along the Yellow River
Logistic regression model
Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region
