摘要
为探究机场飞行区外来物(FOD)入侵安全风险,集成事故树分析(FTA)和贝叶斯网络(BN),构建风险致因分析模型;运用FTA分析FOD入侵的风险致因结构,结合BN表达风险的多模态性,通过FTA的结构推理和BN的双向推理分析、诊断和评价系统风险。研究结果表明:从系统的致险结构来看,违章因素的位置最关键;从系统的敏感性来看,道面破损、航班流量因素最敏感,2个节点最危险状态发生概率分别提升3.57%、0.43%即可导致顶事件发生;从系统的贡献度来看,违章、技能欠缺节点贡献最大,2个节点处于最危险状态时,顶事件发生概率最高,分别为4.18%、1.50%。样本机场FOD入侵发生概率为0.13%,增加飞行区作业人员的经验更能有效降低FOD入侵事件发生的概率。
In order to explore safety risks of FOD intrusion in airport flight area,FTA and BN methods were integrated to build a risk causation analysis model.FTA was used to analyze causation structure of FOD intrusion events.BN was applied to express multimodal properties of risks,and FTA structural reasoning and BN bi-directional reasoning function were utilized to analyze,diagnose and evaluate system risk.The results show that position of violation factors is the most critical element from perspective of risk structure while from perspective of system sensitivity,pavement damage and flight flow are the most sensitive factors with probability of two nodes'most dangerous state increasing by 3.57%and 0.43%respectively,which means that FOD intrusion can occur.It is also found that from perspective of system contribution,nodes with violations and lack of skills make the greatest contribution,and when they are in the most dangerous state,probability of FOD intrusion reaches highest,which is 4.18%and 1.50%respectively.Moreover,FOD intrusion probability in sample airfield is 0.13%,and by operators enriching their working experience,it can be effectively reduced.
作者
潘丹
李永周
罗帆
张攀科
肖琴
PAN Dan;LI Yongzhou;LUO Fan;ZHANG Panke;XIAO Qin(Evergrande School of Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430081,China;Service Science and Engineering Research Center,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430081,China;School of Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;School of Management,Henan University of Science and Technology,Luoyang Henan 471023,China;School of Management,Wuhan Institute of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430205,China)
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第6期7-13,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助(18YJA630076)
湖北省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(D20201104)
湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究项目(19Q022)。
