摘要
林业产业链主要产品的价格联动关系对产业链利益相关者具有重要意义。通过向量自回归模型对主要林产品期货价格数据进行研究。发现:(1)各主要林产品期货主要受自身价格影响;(2)纸浆期货是胶合板期货的单向格兰杰原因;(3)纸浆期货、胶合板期货以及纤维板期货和CME期货相关性不大。
The price linkage of main products in forestry industry chain is significant to stakeholders in the industry chain. The research used the method of VAR with the price of the major forest products futures to study.The results showed that:(1) The main forest products futures were affected by their own previous prices prominently.(2) The paper pulp futures were the Granger causalities of plywood futures.(3) Pulp futures,plywood futures and fiberboard futures had little correlation with CME futures.
作者
丁巍
俞小平
DING Wei;YU Xiao-ping(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China)
出处
《中国林业经济》
2021年第4期11-13,17,共4页
China Forestry Economics
基金
国家社会科学基金“产出随机的供应商融资模式优化与调控政策研究”(17BGL236)。
关键词
林产品期货
价格联动
波动溢出效应
向量自回归
forest product futures
price linkage
volatility spillover effects
VAR model
