摘要
在勘察设计阶段,基于一定精度的隧道瓦斯空间分布预测,对于瓦斯隧道安全施工具有十分重要的意义。论文在收集整理区域地质资料和兰渝铁路广元—合川段隧道钻孔瓦斯浓度检测资料的基础上,利用Kriging估值法理论,建立了川中油气区非煤隧道瓦斯空间分布规律的数学模型。利用同区域的巴中—广安高速公路6座隧道瓦斯资料,运用交叉验证的方法验证了模型的合理性。研究表明,该模型可以预测样本点周边4.1 km范围内,深度为32.3~215 m的非煤隧道瓦斯浓度空间分布值;估计方差可以为估计值可靠程度提供参考性;在待估点周边4.1 km范围内,增加样本点,可以提高预测精度;模型实际预测误差范围为3.04~11.71%,平均误差为6.35%。
In the stage of investigation and design,the prediction of gas spatial distribution in tunnels based on certain accuracy is of great significance for the safe construction of gas tunnels.On the basis of collecting and sorting out the regional geological data and the gas concentration detection data in the Guangyuan-Hechuan section of Lanzhou-Chongqing railway,a mathematical model of spatial distribution of gas in non-coal strata tunnels in the oil and natural gas region of central Sichuan was established by means of Kriging method.Taking the gas data of 6 tunnels of Ba-Guang expressway as an example,the rationality of the model is verified by means of cross-validation.The research shows that the model can predict the spatial distribution value of non-coal strata tunnel gas concentration with a depth of 32.3~215 m within 4.1 km around the sample point.The estimated variance can provide reference for the reliability of the estimated value.Within the 4.1 km range around the sample point,increasing sample points can improve the prediction accuracy.The model of the actual prediction error range is 3.04%~11.71%,the average error is 6.35%.
作者
苏培东
张睿
杜宇本
蒋良文
杨枫
Su Peidong;Zhang Rui;Du Yuben;Jiang Liangwen;Yang Feng(Institutes of Earth Science and technology,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,P.R.China;China Railway Eryuan Engineering Group Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610036,P.R.China;School of Civil Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu 610031,P.R.China)
出处
《地下空间与工程学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第3期953-960,共8页
Chinese Journal of Underground Space and Engineering
基金
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金(51804261)
四川省科技厅应用基础研究项目(19YYJC1060)
中国中铁二院工程集团有限责任公司科研项目(科-2018-33-2)。
