摘要
论文通过GTD对1977—2018年印尼恐怖主义活动进行时空统计分析,从袭击方式、特征、时间空间规律以及风险评估等角度,使用区位商、 Lorenz曲线、因子分析等方法开展印尼恐怖袭击时空特征研究。研究表明:1.空间特征上,印尼恐怖袭击具有广泛性和地区不均衡及强烈的热点和空间聚集性;2.袭击方式和组织上,以采用爆炸等大杀伤力为主要袭击方式,具有恐怖组织繁多,IS影响大以及分离主义恐怖活动危害严重等特点;3.在时间上,从1970—2018年印度尼西亚恐怖袭击活动呈现萌芽、受基地组织影响的极端主义恐怖袭击高峰期以及"后伊斯兰国"影响的恐怖袭击活动重新抬头等趋势。最后,论文结合我国国情与印尼恐怖袭击特点,对我国当前防控打击恐怖势力提出应对之策。
The paper uses the GTD database to conduct a temporal and spatial statistical analysis of terrorist activities in Indonesia from 1977 to 2018. From the perspectives of attack methods, characteristics, temporal and spatial laws, and risk assessment, the location quotient,Lorenz curve, and factor analysis are used to carry out characteristic research. It shows that: 1. In terms of spatial characteristics, Indonesian terrorist attacks are widespread and regionally unbalanced, as well as strong hot spots and spatial agglomeration;2. In terms of attack method and organization, the main method of attack is the mass destruction of explosions, which has the characteristics of numerous terrorist organizations, large influence of IS and serious harm from separatist terrorist activities;3. In terms of time, from 1970 to 2018, the terrorist attacks in Indonesia showed the budding period, the peak of extremist terrorist attacks affected by al-Qaeda, and the resurgence of terrorist attacks affected by the "post-Islamic State". Finally, the thesis combines China’s national conditions and the characteristics of Indonesian terrorist attacks, and proposes countermeasures for the current prevention, control and combating forces.
作者
徐会军
江焕辉
Xu Huijun;Jiang Huanhui(Fujian Police College,Fuzhou Fujian 350001;Guangdong Police College,Guangzhou Guangdong 510230)
出处
《警学研究》
2021年第3期43-60,共18页
Police Science Research
关键词
GTD
时空特征
印尼
恐怖主义活动
GTD
temporal and spatial characteristics
Indonesia
terrorist activities
