摘要
通过构建人口精算模型和参数设计研究了全面二孩政策下我国2018~2050年人口结构发展的动态趋势。研究发现,全面二孩政策下总和生育率每提高0.1,人口总量年均增长率将相应上升0.06%~0.07%,人口老龄化年均增长率将相应减少0.15%~0.19%,总抚养比年均增长率将相应地上升0.080%~0.036%,老年抚养比年均增长率将相应地下降0.17%~0.23%,少儿抚养比年均增长率将相应地上升0.09%~0.18%,男女性别比年均下降率将相应减少0.001%。这表明全面二孩政策下总和生育率的提高能够显著缓解人口总量下降速度,能够显著改善我国人口老龄化上升速度,能够显著降低老年抚养比的上升速度,但是也显著增加了总抚养比和少儿抚养比的上升速度,同时也显著抑制了男女性别比的下降速度。同时,即使2018~2050年每对夫妇生育两个孩子,我国人口变动形势依然不容乐观。最后在实证结果的基础上提出了政策建议。
This paper studies the population trends of China from 2018 to 2050 under the two-child policy in the new era by constructing a population actuarial model with specific parameters.The study finds that due to the two-child policy,the total fertility rate increased by 0.1,the annual average grouth rate of the total population in creases by 0.06%~0.07%,and the average annual growth rate of aging is increases by 0.15%~0.19%.The average annual growth rate of total dependency ratio is increases by 0.080%~0.036%.The average annual growth rate of the elderly dependency ratio is correspondingly reduced by 0.17%~0.23%,the average annual growth rate of child rearing by correspondingly increases 0.09%~0.18%,and the annual average declining rate of gender ratio is correspondingly reduced by 0.001%.This shows that the increase in the total fertility rate under the two-child policy can significantly alleviate the decline in the total population,the rate of population aging and the rate of increase in old-age dependency ratio,significantly increase the rate of total dependency ratio and child dependency ratio.At the same time,it can also significantly inhibit the rate of decline of the gender ratio.Further research in this paper finds that even though each couple had two children between 2018 and 2050,the situation of population change in China would not be optimistic.Finally,some policy recommendations are put forward based on the conclusions of the study.
作者
张鹏飞
ZHANG Pengfei(School of Labor and Human Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China;School of Economic and Social Sciences, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg 69115, Germany)
出处
《大连理工大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期113-122,共10页
Journal of Dalian University of Technology(Social Sciences)
基金
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目“‘高龄少子’背景下延迟退休与全面二孩政策的良性互动研究”(20YJCZH103)。
关键词
全面二孩
人口结构
人口老龄化
抚养比
性别比
universal two-child
total population
population aging
dependency ratio
gender ratio
