摘要
在给定的经济环境下,研究自住购房者、投资购房者和开发商之间的供需均衡模型.通过与刚性需求的房地产市场比较,发现投资购房者的行为是影响房地产价格变化的重要因素.特别地,外推型投资者对房地产价格的走势有推波助澜的作用;回复型投资者虽然具有稳定市场的作用,但也会增加市场的复杂性.当房地产市场的不同主体之间存在相互作用时,房地产价格会出现偏离基准价格、路径依赖、巨额波动和陷入低房价陷阱等现象.政府通过调整基础经济变量(如首付比和开发成本),能起到调控房地产市场的目的.相对首付比调节来说,开发成本调节既能调整基准价格,又能改变投资购房者对房地产市场的影响,可以起到综合调控房地产市场的作用,是比较有效的房地产调控措施.
Under the given economic environment,this paper studies the equilibrium model of supply and demand among self-owned house buyers,investors,and developers.By comparing with the housing market with rigid demand,it is found that the speculative behavior of investors is an important factor affecting the change of housing prices.In particular,extrapolative investors have a boosting effect on the trend of housing prices,and mean-reverting investors not only have a stabilizing effect on the market but also increase the market complexity.When there is an interaction among different trading agents in the housing market,housing prices will de viate from their benchmark price,depend on their paths,fluctuate hugely,and fall into the trap of low housing prices.The government can regulate the housing market by adjusting basic economic variables such as down payment ratio and development cost.Compared with the down payment ratio regulation,the development cost adjustment not only can adjust the benchmark price,but also can change the impact of investors'behavior on housing prices and play a comprehensive role in adjusting the market.Therefore,the development cost adjustment is more effective than the down payment ratio regulation.
作者
郑敏
ZHENG Min(China Institute for Actuarial Science,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)
出处
《管理科学学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第5期97-109,共13页
Journal of Management Sciences in China
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71571197,11671411)
高等学校学科创新引智计划资助项目(B17050)
北京市自然科学基金资助项目(9152016).
关键词
房地产价格
外推型投资者
回复型投资者
首付比
开发成本
housing prices
extrapolative investors
mean-reverting investors
down payment ratio
development cost
