摘要
应用江西省地面降水观测资料、景德镇市水文局水位资料、高空与地面常规观测资料,采用统计分析、天气系统配置等方法分析昌江流域2000年以来9次致洪大暴雨过程,主要结论有:2010年以来昌江流域洪水呈频发、高发态势,9次超警戒线3 m及以上的洪水过程有8次出现在2010-2020年。昌江流域的致洪大暴雨过程,在江西省的降水空间分布上主要表现为赣北全域型和赣东北型,在景德镇市范围内可分为南部型、中部型和北部型3种。赣北全域型与赣东北型的主要影响系统有高空低槽、中低层切变线、低空与超低空西南急流;赣北全域型的中低层切变线与西南急流配合,范围更广,而赣东北型,低层在赣东北至安徽中南部有明显低涡环流,与之相伴随的中低层切变线伸展范围相对较小。景德镇市南部型、中部型、北部型致洪大暴雨影响系统主要表现在“上干下湿”区域与中低层切变线、地面气旋活动区域重叠。中部型多有景德镇市“簸箕”口地形对暴雨的增幅作用,而北部型的急流及辐合系统比南部型更加偏北,副热带高压也更为强盛。这些为有效预测昌江流域洪水提供了科学支撑与参考依据。
In this paper,nine heavy rain processes in Changjiang River Basin since 2000 have been analyzed by using the methods of statistical analysis,image recognition and synoptic analysis.Data for this research are as following:precipitation data from Jiangxi Meteorological Bureau and Jingdezhen Meteorological Bureau,precipitation and water level data from Jingdezhen Hydrological Bureau,and other regular synoptic data.The conclusions are as following 8 of the 9 flood processes that exceed the warning line by 3 m or above occurred between 2010 and 2020.The spatial distribution of the torrential rain in Changjiang River Basin in Jiangxi Province is mainly characterized by the whole area type and the northeast type in North Jiangxi.In Jingdezhen City,it can be divided into three types:the southern type,the central type and the northern type.The main influence systems of the whole area type and the northeast type are the upper low trough,the middle and low level shear line,the low and ultra-low level southwest jet.The whole area type has a wider range of the middle and low level shear line accompanied by the southwest jet.The northeast type has an obvious vortex circulation in the lower level located in northeast Jiangxi and south Anhui,and the extension range of the associated middle and low level shear line is relatively small.The influence system of the southern,central and northern type in Jingdezhen city includes the upper low trough,the middle and low shear line,the low-level southwest jet or the ultra-low southwest jet.The trumpet-shaped topography could enhance the rainfall in the condition of central type.The jet and convergence system of the northern type is more northerly than that of the southern type,and the subtropical high is stronger.These results provide a reference for effectively predicting the torrential rain process in Changjiang River Basin and reducing flood losses.
作者
苏茜
吴美芳
陈鲍发
孙华军
SU Qian;WU Meifang;CHEN Baofa;SUN Huajun(Meteorological Bureau of Jingdezhen City,Jingde zhen 333000,China;Hydrological Bureau of Jingdezhen City,Jingde zhen 333000,China)
出处
《成都信息工程大学学报》
2021年第3期342-348,共7页
Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology
基金
江西省气象局面上资助项目(JX2020M05)。
关键词
大气科学
致洪大暴雨
空间分布
天气影响系统
meteorology science
flood-causing rainstorm
spatial distribution
synoptic systems
